Bitcoin’s STH Discount Narrows – A Critical Price Action Zone

Bitcoin is currently testing the cost basis of short-term holders (STH). The STH discount has narrowed to -4%, the smallest gap seen in the past two months.

This compression signals an important decision point for the market, where price action may resolve into either a bullish breakout or a renewed wave of selling pressure.

Key Insights

The STH discount has recovered from -22% to -4% since November, indicating strength after market capitulation

Over 35,400 BTC in profit were sent to exchanges in the last 24 hours, suggesting profit-taking rather than panic selling

Price is currently trading near $95,500, moving closer to the STH cost basis around $99,460

What’s Next?

Bullish scenario:

If Bitcoin consolidates above the $100,000 level, short-term holders may shift back into profit, supporting upside continuation.

Bearish scenario:

A rejection near the STH cost basis could trigger short-term selling pressure and a temporary pullback before the next major move.

Conclusion:

Bitcoin is at a critical inflection point. The next few sessions will be decisive in determining the short-term trend.