This Bitcoin Price Prediction Is Making Traders Nervous: As Analyst Warns “People Aren’t Ready”
A chart shared by analyst Chiefy is making the rounds on crypto Twitter, and it’s not hard to see why. His take is simple, but uncomfortable: if Bitcoin’s historical 4-year cycle is still intact, the next major move could be a sharp drop toward $40,000 as early as January.
That’s not a small pullback. From current levels around $87,000, it would mean a decline of more than 50%. And that’s exactly why the prediction is unsettling so many traders.
Chiefy’s chart looks back at every major Bitcoin cycle since 2012. In each one, the Bitcoin price topped out, then went through a brutal post-peak correction lasting roughly 1,400 to 1,450 days before the next major low formed. Those drawdowns weren’t mild. In past cycles, Bitcoin fell between 78% and 87% from its highs before finally stabilizing.
The visual comparison is what grabs attention. The current cycle, when mapped against the previous ones, lines up closely with 2021 in terms of timing. If that rhythm repeats, the market could still be ahead of its real capitulation phase.
Source: X/@0xChiefy
That’s where the $40,000 level comes from. It isn’t a random number. It sits in a zone that would represent a deep but historically consistent correction if Bitcoin were to fully follow its past cycle behavior.
To put this into context, Bitcoin already had a rough end to 2025. After peaking near $126,000, the BTC price slid to around $87,000, a drop of roughly 30%. That move alone shook confidence and flushed out a lot of late leverage. But even that decline looks relatively modest compared to what past bear markets delivered.
For Bitcoin to reach $40,000, the market would need to enter a much heavier risk-off phase than what we’ve seen so far. Not just a continuation of chop or slow bleeding, but a full shift into a deep bear environment.
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