📈 U.S. Inflation Update (May 2025): Key Takeaways

#USCorePCEMay Fed’s Favorite Gauge Shows Prices Still Warming Up

1. Core Inflation (Excluding Food & Energy)

- ↗️ Monthly: Rose 0.2% (up from April’s 0.1%)

- ↗️ Yearly: Hit 2.7% (slightly above April’s 2.6%)

2. Overall Inflation (Headline PCE)

- ⏺️ Monthly: +0.1% (same as April)

- ↗️ Yearly: 2.3% (up from 2.2%)

🔍 What This Means

- Stubborn Inflation: Prices are still rising faster than the Fed’s 2% target.

- Fed Policy: Likely to keep interest rates high (currently 4.25%-4.50%) for now.

- Rate Cuts?: Markets hope for two cuts in late 2025—but only if inflation cools.

🧠 Why It Matters

> "Core PCE is the Fed’s go-to inflation thermometer. At 2.7%, it’s signaling the economy is still running warm—not hot enough to panic, but too warm to cut rates yet."

- 💼 Impact: Borrowing costs (mortgages, loans) stay high.

- 📉 Markets: Stocks/crypto may wobble if rate cuts get delayed.

- ⚖️ Silver Lining: No "overheating" scare—just persistent pressure from wages/tariffs.

📊 Quick Snapshot

| Metric | May 2025 | April 2025 |

|-----------------------|----------|------------|

| Core PCE (Monthly) | +0.2% | +0.1% |

| Core PCE (Yearly) | 2.7% | 2.6% |

| Headline PCE (Yearly) | 2.3% | 2.2% |

🚀 Bottom Line

Inflation isn’t crashing—it’s crawling. The Fed won’t cut rates until it’s sure prices are tamed. For crypto (#BTC110KToday?), this means patience: rate cuts = rocket fuel, but we’re not there yet.

Stay tuned for summer data—tariffs could shake things up! 🌡️

Need this as a tweet? Or want deeper analysis vs. CPI? Let me know! 💬