🚨 Everyone Waiting for Powell to Cut Rates… But Powell Doesn’t Look Ready
Traders keep positioning for near-term Fed rate cuts.
But November–December data doesn’t support a pivot.
Inflation is still sticky.
Headline CPI ~2.7% YoY
Core CPI ~2.6–2.7%
That’s progress, not victory. The Fed needs inflation convincingly near 2% and staying there.
The labor market is cooling, not breaking.
November payrolls ~64K
December payrolls ~50K
Unemployment ~4.4%
Historically, the Fed cuts only after clear labor damage — negative payrolls or a sharp, persistent rise in unemployment. We’re far from that.
Markets are also watching political noise around the Fed. It doesn’t change the mandate, but it adds uncertainty and reinforces caution.
That’s why futures markets price about a 96% chance of no change at the next FOMC, with only a small chance of a near-term cut.
👉 Base case:
Rates higher for longer.
No fast pivot.
The US session opens in ~4 hours. If markets are leaning too hard into rate-cut hopes, volatility can spike.
Leverage traders should be careful.
For crypto, upside needs real drivers — ETF flows, adoption, and on-chain activity — not macro hope.
Follow the data, not the narrative.
Full report on CoinBelieve.
$BTC $ETH $RIVER
#PowellRemarks #FOMCMeeting