🚨 BTC Broke $87K — And the Market Punished Trend Fighters
BTC impulsively lost $87,000, and that sweep took out our long.
We were waiting for a rebound that never came — and once again, the market reminded us of a brutal rule:
Never trade against the dominant higher-timeframe trend.
📉 Where We Went Wrong
On Jan 18, BTC flipped bearish on the 3H timeframe.
Instead of respecting the shift, we expected: • A bounce
• A relief rally
• A chance to average out
None came.
Price has been grinding down ever since.
🔻 From the 3H trend flip, BTC has already dropped ~7.3%
⚙️ With 30× leverage, that move = ~+210% short / account destruction for longs
The correct move? ➡️ Accept the loss on Jan 18
➡️ Flip short with trend
Hard to do emotionally — but technically correct.
🧠 The Real Lesson
An indicator is useless if you don’t obey it.
Discipline > Analysis.
📊 Current Market Structure
⚠️ Critical Breakdown Zone (NOW LOST)
$87,457 – $87,779
This level was the bulls’ last structural defense.
Break = high probability move toward:
🎯 Next support: $84,485
⏱ Short-Term View
• The drop to $86,622 cleared most lower liquidity targets
• On 30m timeframe, we now have a 3rd “Strong Low” signal
This does NOT guarantee reversal, but:
👉 If you rode shorts, partial profit-taking makes sense
👉 Risk/reward for fresh shorts here is weaker
🐉 Possible “Dragon” Pattern
There’s a faint chance of a bullish “Dragon” structure forming from Jan 18 lows — BUT:
❗ It is not active ❗ It is not confirmed
Key condition:
🔑 Break of the spine line ≈ $89,420
Until that breaks, this remains a bearish market with bounce potential only, not reversal.
🐻 Bigger Picture
We stay flat for now.
Why?
• Bulls show no strength
• Shorting after an impulse is poor R:R
• Waiting for 2-Day timeframe confirmation
If the 2D trend flips bearish at candle close (≈ 1D 6H left), winter likely continues in a broader downtrend — rallies become short setups, not trend changes.
🧩 Bottom Line
This wasn’t bad analysis.
