Посты
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He can’t keep getting away with being right?
Bluechip
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I think it’s important to clearly outline what we’ve seen develop over the past few days.
We experienced a strong push above the range highs.
At the time, this appeared to be a genuine breakout to many participants. I, however, was anticipating a swing failure, the formation of a lower high, and a retrace back into the range, hence why I scaled into shorts. That said, let’s assess the market objectively.
After 2 weeks of compression, CPI acted as the catalyst that pushed BTC from ~93K to ~98K. In doing so, price swept a significant amount of supply, deviated above all major highs, and filled the weekly imbalance. However, the key detail is that the weekly candle closed back below the range highs. This was the first clear warning sign. That close represented clean acceptance back into the range.
Bulls attempted to continue higher, but momentum failed. Sellers stepped in decisively, and the market revealed its hand. This is not what healthy upside continuation looks like, quite the opposite infact. As always, I’m not concerned with consensus opinions. I’m evaluating price action objectively.
So what does this rejection tell us?
It tells us that bulls are not in control. The market is weak, and the broader structure remains firmly bearish. I highly doubt this is a "bait resistance before higher" type of setup. You don’t typically see a full bullish range breakout completely fail and re-enter the range, only to then push higher again. That behavior is far more characteristic of re-distribution before continuation lower.
From here, if BTC fails to hold the 90K level, a move toward 86.8K becomes highly likely, along with a test of the yearly open at 87.6K. I’m still holding my full short position and sticking strictly to an objective plan. That said, it would be prudent to gradually take partial profits, as we’ve already captured roughly a 5% move.
On HTFs, I remain confident in my bearish thesis. I’m targeting sub 85K and potentially sub 70K over the coming months, which is why holding this position serves a larger purpose.
There is a scenario where price pushes back toward the 93.6K area (the 2025 yearly open). That outcome is plausible if 90K holds, but it’s not something I’m targeting, planning around, or hedging against. The absolute maximum upside I see from here is around 94K, and even that would simply be a reaction into prior range highs, not a shift in bias.
Until structure changes, I remain short. I do not care about roundtrips as stated, I am sticking to my plan.
$BTC
At the time, this appeared to be a genuine breakout to many participants. I, however, was anticipating a swing failure, the formation of a lower high, and a retrace back into the range, hence why I scaled into shorts. That said, let’s assess the market objectively.
After 2 weeks of compression, CPI acted as the catalyst that pushed BTC from ~93K to ~98K. In doing so, price swept a significant amount of supply, deviated above all major highs, and filled the weekly imbalance. However, the key detail is that the weekly candle closed back below the range highs. This was the first clear warning sign. That close represented clean acceptance back into the range.
Bulls attempted to continue higher, but momentum failed. Sellers stepped in decisively, and the market revealed its hand. This is not what healthy upside continuation looks like, quite the opposite infact. As always, I’m not concerned with consensus opinions. I’m evaluating price action objectively.
So what does this rejection tell us?
It tells us that bulls are not in control. The market is weak, and the broader structure remains firmly bearish. I highly doubt this is a "bait resistance before higher" type of setup. You don’t typically see a full bullish range breakout completely fail and re-enter the range, only to then push higher again. That behavior is far more characteristic of re-distribution before continuation lower.
From here, if BTC fails to hold the 90K level, a move toward 86.8K becomes highly likely, along with a test of the yearly open at 87.6K. I’m still holding my full short position and sticking strictly to an objective plan. That said, it would be prudent to gradually take partial profits, as we’ve already captured roughly a 5% move.
On HTFs, I remain confident in my bearish thesis. I’m targeting sub 85K and potentially sub 70K over the coming months, which is why holding this position serves a larger purpose.
There is a scenario where price pushes back toward the 93.6K area (the 2025 yearly open). That outcome is plausible if 90K holds, but it’s not something I’m targeting, planning around, or hedging against. The absolute maximum upside I see from here is around 94K, and even that would simply be a reaction into prior range highs, not a shift in bias.
Until structure changes, I remain short. I do not care about roundtrips as stated, I am sticking to my plan.
$BTC
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