fualnguyen

In investing, a manchild is not someone who lacks knowledge, nor someone with limited capital.
A manchild is someone who cannot tolerate prolonged uncertainty ==> who constantly needs the market to validate their emotions on a daily basis.
They may understand technical analysis, read on-chain data, and even memorize past market cycles - yet they fall apart when price fails to move in their favor quickly enough. When the market drops, they buy out of fear of missing the bottom. When price goes sideways for too long, doubt creeps in. And when the market dips again, they are exhausted - right before real opportunity appears.
Manchildren are not eliminated by one violent crash. They are eliminated by time - by psychological erosion, and by repeated decisions driven by emotion rather than discipline. That is why the current market is not for manchildren.

A –50% Drawdown Won’t Kill You. Time Will.
Bitcoin peaked near $126,000 in October 2025, before correcting to the $63,000–$68,000 range—roughly a –50% drawdown.
Historically, this does not qualify as a full-fledged bear market. It is better described as a mid-cycle drawdown. For comparison:
2013–2017: ~–84.5%, recovery ~24 months2017–2020: ~–84%, recovery ~24 months2021–2024: ~–77%, recovery ~16 monthsCurrent cycle: ~–50%, not yet resolved
The real danger here is not the depth of the decline, but the duration of the pain. The market does not need to crash further to do damage ==> it only needs to drag on long enough.

Who Is Selling, and Who Is Buying? On-Chain Data Is Very Clear
Santiment data reveals a structure that is typical of weakening markets:
Whale & shark wallets (10–10,000 BTC): Now hold only 68.04% of total BTC supply, a 9-month low, after selling approximately 81,068 BTC in just 8 days. This suggests that large capital has no urgency to defend price, nor any pressure to reaccumulate yet.Shrimp wallets (<0.01 BTC): In contrast, small retail wallets have increased their holdings to 0.249% of total supply, a 20-month high. The absolute number is small, but the psychological signal is clear: retail continues to buy the dip.
In short, smart money is distributing while retail is trying to stay hopeful ==> a structure that has preceded nearly every bear phase in Bitcoin’s history.
Retail Has Not Capitulated - and That’s the Problem
Indicators such as Net Realized Profit/Loss show that realized losses are increasing, but true capitulation has not yet occurred. Retail participants continue to buy dips, convinced that prices are already “cheap,” and expecting a fast recovery. Historically, durable market bottoms rarely form while the crowd still believes. Markets usually bottom only when:
Confidence is fully erodedBuy-side liquidity dries upAnd the majority of retail participants accept defeat and leave
Until that happens, there is little incentive for smart money to step back in aggressively.

This Is Where Manchildren Get Eliminated
In investing, manchildren tend to:
Break down during prolonged drawdownsDCA emotionally, without proper position sizingConstantly ask “Is this the bottom yet?” instead of “Can I survive this?”Exit the market right before conditions truly improve
Mature investors, by contrast, understand that:
Survival matters more than short-term returnsDoing nothing is also a decisionAnd patience is an edge - not passivity
This cycle does not reward those who buy the most, shout “hold” the loudest, or act the bravest.
It rewards only one group: Those who survive the painful phase. And that is why: The current market is not for manchildren.
#Fualnguyen #LongTermAnalysis #LongTermInvestment

On Binance charts, AVL (Average Value Line) is not merely a line that shows the average cost. At a deeper level, AVL represents the strongest price conflict zone between buyers and sellers, the area where market control is decided in each phase of the cycle.
Unlike MA or EMA - which simply smooth price data - AVL is updated on every single candle, directly reflecting trading behavior and the profit–loss state of the majority of participants.

How AVL Is Formed and Why It Moves
AVL is continuously recalculated based on:
The transaction price within each candleTrading volumeThe balance between new buyers and sellers
Every candle close represents a re-pricing of the market’s average cost basis.

High-volume candles can shift AVL significantly, while low-activity sessions barely move it.
That is why AVL is not a short-term trading tool, but rather a map of market psychology and capital flow.
AVL as the Market’s Strongest Conflict Zone
AVL represents the price level where:
Buyers consider the price “fair”Sellers see an opportunity to “get back to breakeven”
As a result:
Above AVL: buyers are in control, most holders are in profit, selling pressure is lowBelow AVL: sellers dominate, most holders are at a loss, and every rebound faces selling pressure
For this reason, AVL is always the most intense battleground, and how price behaves around it determines the next trend.
Reading Price Behavior Around AVL

Price Below AVL – AVL Sloping Down
The majority of the market is in a losing positionSellers control price actionAVL acts as dynamic resistance
This is the typical structure of a bear market or markdown phase.

AVL Hugging the Lower Body of Candles
Price opens and is sold continuously, closing near the lowsAVL fails to move up and often declines alongside price
This signals:
Buyers lack the strength to absorb supplyNew buyers accept progressively lower pricesThe downtrend is confirmed, not just short-term volatility
Price Testing AVL From Below
AVL becomes the direct collision point between buyers and sellersRejection → technical rebound / bull trap
Sustained acceptance above AVL → early cycle transition

Applying AVL to BTC and BNB
BTC
Price remains below AVLAVL is sloping downward and consistently rejects reboundsLong red candles appear alongside rising volume
This indicates:
Holders from the prior uptrend are underwaterEach rebound triggers “sell-to-breakeven” pressureBTC is in a distribution → markdown phase
==> The downtrend is confirmed, with no transition signal as long as AVL keeps falling.
BNB
Price is below AVL by a wider margin than BTCAVL is declining faster and shows no reaction to reboundsStrong bearish candles suggest forced position exits
This reflects:
BNB is underperforming BTC in terms of capital flowNew buyers lack convictionSelling pressure is more aggressive
==> BNB is weaker than BTC and more vulnerable during the decline.
Quick Comparison via AVL
BTC: weak, but still the market’s core anchorBNB: structurally weaker, under greater stress
Both assets are trading below the AVL conflict zone, where sellers currently dominate.

AVL is not just an average cost line - it is the frontline where buyers and sellers collide.

#Fualnguyen

#Fualnguyen
The crypto market is entering a critical phase in which price movements are no longer driven purely by greed or fear, but by a broader process of rebalancing after a major trend. At this stage, no one can accurately predict the market’s fate, yet higher-timeframe structures suggest several possible scenarios ahead.

The first scenario is the Bottoming Phase, where price moves sideways within a wide range and volatility remains elevated but increasingly controlled. Selling pressure gradually fades as weak hands are forced out, while smart money quietly accumulates with a long-term mindset, focusing on position building rather than catching the exact bottom. This phase often feels slow and unrewarding, but it lays the groundwork for the next growth cycle.
Within this broader process, the market may also experience a Dead Cat Bounce, characterized by sharp relief rallies following extended declines. These moves often create the illusion that a new uptrend has begun, driven by short covering and short-term retail optimism, while the underlying market structure remains fragile. As price approaches key resistance levels, liquidity returns and distribution takes place, turning apparent strength into a technical rebound rather than a genuine trend reversal.

The final scenario is the Breakdown Phase, which occurs when long-term support levels fail, triggering widespread liquidations and panic-driven selling as leverage is flushed out of the system. Although emotionally painful, this phase often represents the final cleansing of a cycle, where excess risk is removed and true value begins to emerge.
The fate of the market is not decided in a single trading session, but shaped over time by cycles and capital flows. While investors cannot control which scenario ultimately plays out, they can control their exposure to risk. In the most uncertain periods, the primary objective is not to maximize profits, but to preserve capital, maintain discipline, and remain in the game long enough to participate in the next cycle. You can’t decide the fate of the market, but you can decide your own survival.
#Fualnguyen

In a prolonged market downturn, the hardest part is not taking losses, but controlling behavior once the trend has already broken. Over the past period, Bitcoin has repeatedly led investors into “bottom-fishing” attempts. Each decline looked deep enough to believe a bottom was in place, yet in reality, those moves were merely lower steps within a broader, weakening structure.

From the peak around $97,000, Bitcoin successively broke through major support levels at $86,000 and $73,000, before dropping toward the $60,000 area and staging a technical rebound back to roughly $66,000–$76,000. The issue is not how many percentage points price has fallen, but the fact that the market continues to form lower lows, indicating that current buying pressure is still insufficient to reverse the trend.
On the weekly timeframe, the technical picture becomes clearer. Bitcoin has lost its long-term uptrend structure after decisively breaking below the MA50 and MA100. This is no longer a standard pullback within an uptrend, but a signal that medium- to long-term momentum has materially weakened. In previous cycles, when price traded below these moving averages, the market typically required an extended consolidation phase or further downside before a true bottom was formed.
At present, the weekly MA200 around the $57,000 level stands as the last remaining long-term support. This is not a guaranteed buy zone, but rather an area where a technical reaction may occur due to the convergence of long-term defensive flows. However, MA200 only acts as support as long as it holds. In a more negative scenario, if MA200 fails decisively, the long-term defensive structure would be invalidated.
In that case, based on higher-timeframe Bollinger Bands, the lower band around the $53,000 region becomes a technically plausible area for the market to search for a new equilibrium. This is not a price prediction, but a reasonable technical scenario should the downtrend extend and selling pressure remain unresolved.

It is precisely in this environment that DCA must be re-examined carefully. DCA during a prolonged downtrend is not inherently wrong, but DCA without discipline is extremely dangerous. The most common mistake is allocating capital evenly over time and buying most aggressively during sharp sell-offs under the assumption that price has already “discounted enough.” This approach does not reduce risk—it only increases position stress while the trend remains unfinished.

Proper DCA in a weakening market must be executed based on confirmation, not emotion. When the trend is weak and volatility remains high, position sizes should be small. Only when price demonstrates the ability to hold long-term support levels, volatility compresses, and the market stops making lower lows should exposure be increased. DCA volume matters more than DCA frequency, because deploying the largest capital when uncertainty is highest is simply another form of catching a falling knife.
Even if the market appears exhausted after an extended decline, that does not mean a bottom has formed. In this phase, patience matters more than bravery. Bottom-fishing is not about aggressive buying, but about observing, preserving capital, maintaining psychological resilience, and waiting until probabilities begin to shift in your favor. A bottom is only confirmed after it has passed, and those who survive long enough are the ones who get to participate in the next cycle.
Don’t catch a falling knife. Let the knife settle on the floor - then pick it up.
#Fualnguyen #LongTermAnalysis #LongTermInvestment

The past four months have been exhausting. Bitcoin kept breaking support, bouncing weakly, then selling off again. Every drop came with the hope of “this must be the bottom,” and every rebound failed to confirm a new trend. Many investors were right a few times early on, yet still ended up with heavy losses ==> Not because they were wrong, but because they were wrong too big.
In phases like this, the problem is no longer whether your analysis is right or wrong.
The real question is: How many times can you be wrong and still have capital left to continue?
That answer lies in position sizing.

Position sizing is not about how many coins you buy. Most investors confuse position sizing with splitting capital neatly or buying smaller amounts “to be safe.” In reality, position sizing revolves around one single question: If this scenario is wrong, how much money am I willing to lose?
In a downtrend, being wrong is normal. Being wrong by a small amount is the skill.

NAV - the foundation of every decision
NAV (Net Asset Value) is the total value of your portfolio at the current moment: cash plus the market value of all open positions. Position sizing must always be calculated as a percentage of NAV, not based on emotion or “bottom intuition.”
A survival rule:
Risk per decision ≤ 0.5%–1% of NAVDuring bottom-hunting phases: 0.25%–0.5% of NAV
This ensures that: Multiple mistakes won’t knock you out of the game. Your psychology doesn’t collapse after a few bad trades

Three concepts that must be clearly separated
Position size: how much capital you allocateRisk size: how much you can lose if you’re wrongExposure: how exposed you are to the market
The most common mistake: “I only used 5% of my account, so the risk is low” ==> WRONG
Without defined risk limits, your risk equals that full 5% of NAV, which is huge in a downtrend.

Position sizing when hunting for a Bitcoin bottom
Bottom-hunting is the highest-risk scenario because:
The trend is not confirmedYou only know the real bottom in hindsight
The correct approach:
Treat each entry as an independent experimentRisk per attempt: 0.25%–0.5% of NAVNever compound conviction
You can be wrong 8–10 times in a row and still lose only a few percent of NAV ==> while most investors mentally collapse after the third mistake.

DCA is not risk-free
DCA in a downtrend is not wrong. DCA without risk control is the real danger. Principles:
Each DCA entry is a separate decisionTotal risk of the entire DCA sequence ≤ 2%–3% of NAVNever DCA just because “price is cheaper than yesterday”
Proper DCA is a strategy: DCA because you refuse to cut losses is hope disguised as discipline.

Cash is also a position
When the market lacks clear direction:
Holding 50%–80% in cash is not missing outIt is a defensive position
Cash allows you to:
Stay emotionally stableAvoid forced holding through deep drawdownsHave ammunition when a real bottom finally forms

The math of survival
A 50% loss requires a 100% gain to break evenA 70% loss requires a 233% gain—almost impossible within one cycle
Good position sizing doesn’t help you win big. It prevents you from falling into an unrecoverable zone.

The mandatory questions before every trade
Before clicking buy, answer:
If I’m wrong, what percentage of my NAV do I lose?If I’m wrong 5–10 times in a row, can I still stay in the game?Is this trade truly worth that level of risk?
If you can’t answer these clearly → don’t enter the trade.

🚀🚀🚀 The market doesn’t kill you. Oversized positions do.
After four of Bitcoin bottom-hunting, the biggest lesson isn’t about calling the exact bottom ==> it’s about who still has capital and mental clarity when the real bottom finally appears.
Position sizing doesn’t make you smarter than the market. It keeps you alive long enough for the market to reward you.
#Fualnguyen #LongTermAnalysis #LongTermInvestment

When markets turn volatile, headlines about “whales fleeing” always surface first.
But the data tells a more nuanced story - not all whales are the same, and not every sell-off comes from the same kind of weakness.
Figure 1 clearly illustrates a classic panic-phase behavior: large wallets rapidly depositing BTC into Binance, with multiple transactions worth hundreds of millions of dollars within hours. This is no longer technical wallet reshuffling or routine rebalancing =>> it is explicit loss realization. As prices fall sharply, whales with leverage exposure, poor risk management, or liquidity pressure are forced to exit at any cost. The news calls it “whales running,” but in reality, this is capitulation ==> the surrender of weak capital.

Figure 2, however, tells a very different — and far heavier - story. According to the latest data, the top 20 publicly listed companies holding digital assets are collectively sitting on more than $17 billion in unrealized losses. This is not short-term speculative capital. These are institutions that have embedded crypto directly into their balance sheets, meaning they simply cannot “go away.”

Leading the losses is Bitmine Immersion, associated with Tom Lee, accounting for nearly 44% of total unrealized losses, or over $7.5 billion, driven primarily by ETH purchases at an average price around $3,900. While these losses remain unrealized, they represent immense financial and psychological pressure as Ethereum moves through a prolonged drawdown cycle.
Following closely is Strategy, led by Michael Saylor, currently holding more than $2.2 billion in unrealized losses, with an average BTC acquisition price near $76,000. Despite Saylor’s unwavering long-term conviction, the P&L data makes one thing clear: even the strongest ideological holders are not immune to cyclical market stress.
Placed side by side, the contrast becomes obvious:
• On-chain whales: cutting losses quickly, exiting when pressure exceeds tolerance.
• Corporate whales: unable to exit, forced to endure losses and ride out the full cycle.
So when the news says whales are running and bleeding, the real question is not where the market goes next - but: Will you go away with the crowd, or choose the opposite when fear peaks?

Markets are not driven by headlines. They are decided by who still has the strength to remain when fear has fully played out.
#Fualnguyen #LongTermAnalysis #LongTermInvestment

I once did what many people hope for: I sold Bitcoin near the top. It was a disciplined and rational decision. But shortly after that, I made another decision driven not by cold analysis, but by confidence built on prior success. I moved all that capital into averaging down ONDO, believing I was optimizing my portfolio and positioning ahead of the market.

Six months later, the market delivered a clear answer. Bitcoin corrected and moved sideways within a controlled range, maintaining the structure of an early-cycle asset. ONDO, on the other hand, continued to decline despite its narrative and expectations. The outcome needs no embellishment: I am currently down around 70%.

This was not because the market betrayed me, nor because Bitcoin or ONDO were inherently bad choices. The mistake was a sequence of decisions made under a familiar psychological condition - overconfidence after being right. The market does not punish you for selling the top, it tests you on the decision that follows, when you start believing you can outsmart it again.

In hindsight, the issue was not choosing an altcoin, but trading safety for higher expected returns while risk appetite was deteriorating. Bitcoin can decline, but it rarely loses its structural integrity. Altcoins do not share that privilege. The market does not care about narratives; it responds to liquidity and risk preference.
The market does not need forgiveness, because it never made promises. Charts have no emotions and bear no responsibility for anyone’s decisions. The only one who needs forgiveness in this story is myself - for confusing a correct decision in the past with the ability to always be right in the future.
Forgiving yourself is not about forgetting losses. It is about not trading in revenge mode, not trying to prove yourself right against the market, and not carrying the ego of the previous cycle into the next one. Anyone who stays long enough in the market will sell correctly and buy incorrectly, win big and lose deeply, be right on direction but wrong on allocation. The difference is not how often you were right, but what you learned after being wrong.
The market will offer new opportunities, but only those who know how to forgive themselves will remain clear-headed enough to recognize them ==> and survive long enough to take part.
#Fualnguyen #LongTermInvestment

Despite recent market drawdowns, liquidity has not exited the crypto ecosystem but is instead being actively repositioned. Over the past seven days, Binance has overwhelmingly led exchange inflows with $949 million, far surpassing Deribit and Gemini, each recording around $214 million. In contrast, OKX, Gate, and Crypto.com have seen combined outflows of approximately $149 million, clearly indicating a rotation of capital toward the market’s largest liquidity hub. A net positive inflow suggests that traders and institutions remain engaged, moving capital onto exchanges to prepare for action rather than exiting, placing the market in a sensitive zone ahead of a potential major move.

More importantly, Binance is not merely a destination for inflows => it has become a direct buyer of Bitcoin itself. As part of its plan to convert the SAFU insurance fund from stablecoins into Bitcoin, Binance executed its first BTC purchase of 1,315 BTC, worth roughly $100.7 million. Shortly after, according to Bitcoin Magazine, Binance added another 1,350 BTC, valued at around $102 million, directly into the SAFU Fund. In a short period of time, more than 2,600 BTC have been accumulated, steadily advancing Binance’s plan to convert $1 billion of SAFU reserves into Bitcoin. At a time when the market is correcting, choosing to increase exposure to Bitcoin rather than retreat into stablecoins sends a clear strategic message.

Alongside these moves, BNB has demonstrated standout performance among platform tokens. While Bitcoin is down roughly 21% over the past 30 days and both ETH and SOL have fallen more than 30%, with many Layer 1 and Layer 2 platforms underperforming the broader market, BNB has declined by only about 19%. This makes BNB the best-performing major platform token during the period, reflecting capital preference for ecosystems with real cash flows, confidence in Binance as the financial backbone of crypto, and BNB’s role as a proxy for the overall health of the Binance ecosystem. It is no coincidence that Binance leads inflows, SAFU is anchored in Bitcoin, and BNB exhibits superior resilience relative to its peers.
Taken together, capital remains within the market, Binance continues to function as the core liquidity hub, SAFU evolves into a Bitcoin-backed shield, and BNB mirrors the strength and confidence in the ecosystem. In times of uncertainty, the strongest players do not stand aside ==> they act.
And today, Binance is demonstrating exactly why it remains a pillar of the global crypto market.

Reference: CoinMarketCap, BeinCrypto

Financial markets can postpone, but they never forget. In the short term, price can move ahead of reality, expectations can substitute for data, and policy can buy time. But any movement built on an incomplete foundation leaves traces behind. A gap on the chart is not a random event; it is a visible manifestation of unresolved structural issues that were never truly confronted. And sooner or later, the market always returns to those places.

Over the past weekend, Bitcoin formed a wide CME gap between 78,000 and 83,000 USD as futures markets were closed. During that period, spot markets continued trading and price moved without the participation of institutional flow from the CME. When futures reopened, price did not simply continue lower by momentum. Instead, it staged a technical rebound to fill the lower portion of the gap between 78,000 and 79,000 USD. This was not a sign of renewed strength, but a structural response: the market was forced to revisit a price zone that had never been validated by real liquidity.

The remaining portion of the gap between 79,000 and 83,000 USD still exists. This does not guarantee that price must return there, but it does signal that the current market structure remains incomplete. In a weakening trend, such gaps do not disappear on their own. They persist as unanswered questions, and markets rarely move far while those questions remain unresolved.
What makes this more important is that the same phenomenon extends far beyond the chart. At the macro level, the global financial system is operating on similar unresolved issues—problems postponed by policy decisions and masked by expectations, but never addressed at their core. The gap between price and value in technical analysis mirrors the gap between policy and reality in macroeconomics.

Jerome Powell and the U.S. Federal Reserve represent one of the clearest examples of this disconnect. Interest rates have been kept elevated for an extended period to control inflation, but the cost has been slowing growth, tightening credit conditions, and increasing pressure on the corporate sector. Meanwhile, asset markets have repeatedly behaved as if rate cuts were merely a matter of time. Policy and expectations have moved out of sync, creating a structural imbalance that has yet to be fully priced in.

On the fiscal side, Janet Yellen and the U.S. Treasury have not solved the debt problem; they have managed it through time. By prioritizing short-term Treasury bill issuance, immediate pressure on long-term yields has been reduced, but the debt itself has not disappeared. It has simply been pushed into the future, accumulating into a larger systemic risk. This is a classic unresolved issue, similar to a price gap temporarily obscured by a technical rebound—stable on the surface, fragile underneath.
Europe, under the leadership of Christine Lagarde, finds itself in a comparable position. The ECB speaks of financial stability, yet the region continues to face prolonged weak growth, declining consumption, and persistent geopolitical pressures. Monetary policy is neither loose enough to generate a clear recovery cycle nor decisive enough to force a necessary adjustment. A macro gray zone has emerged, much like the remaining 79,000–83,000 USD gap on Bitcoin’s chart: not invalidated, but far from safe.
The common thread across these examples is the postponement of the most difficult decisions. The Federal Reserve remains “data dependent,” the Treasury rotates debt maturities, and central banks emphasize stability over structural solutions. Markets may not trust words, but they closely observe actions. And when those actions reveal that problems are merely being deferred, unresolved risks inevitably begin to express themselves through price behavior.

Returning to Bitcoin, the move to fill the 78,000–79,000 USD portion of the CME gap should not be interpreted as confirmation of a new uptrend. It simply indicates that the market has begun to confront what was previously ignored. The remaining gap between 79,000 and 83,000 USD stands as a reminder that risk has not disappeared - it is waiting to be priced more fully.
Markets fill gaps not because of a mechanical rule, but because neither technical structures nor macro systems can move forward on unresolved issues. Price can delay, policy can buy time, but ultimately, reality always finds its way back onto the chart.
#Fualnguyen #LongTermAnalysis #LongTermInvestment

The market doesn't care about your expectations. It simply keeps moving and testing those who remain.

When the price boards are covered in red, the fastest thing to be eroded isn't your account, but your faith. Yet, it is during these most uncomfortable periods that the market clearly distinguishes: who is patient enough to stay and who will leave.
“Stay Hungry” means maintaining the clarity to learn and adapt. “Stay Bullish” isn't about believing prices will rise soon, but believing in a long-term plan even when the market moves against your expectations.
1. If the crypto market continues to fall, can you still keep your faith?
This is a question anyone who stays in the market long enough is forced to answer.
When prices drop, altcoins bleed red, and accounts grow thinner by the day, the most common emotion is no longer fear, but exhaustion. The market doesn't crash instantly, but it doesn't provide a clear support point either. It is this state of limbo that erodes faith the most.

However, if you look deeper into the market structure, sharp declines are sometimes necessary. When prices fall rapidly, selling pressure is usually released decisively. Those no longer willing to endure will finish selling and leave, leaving behind a lighter market with less pressure. Compared to a prolonged decline filled with doubt and vague expectations, a clear correction often helps the market find a new price floor sooner.
Faith at this point does not come from the belief that prices will recover soon, but from the understanding that pain is an indispensable part of every major cycle.
2. When you maintain a bullish perspective, the surrounding picture isn't as gloomy as the crowd's emotions
While crypto is correcting, the US stock market - especially the tech sector - is also under significant pressure. Capital exiting high-risk assets is a familiar reaction when the macro environment becomes tense. This reflects a reallocation of risk, not a negation of the long-term value of technology or digital assets.

Conversely, gold and silver are seeing quite positive recoveries. Although still lower than recent peaks, the important thing is that the recent drop did not create panic. The orderly return of defensive capital shows that the financial system has not fallen into a state of extreme instability.

With crypto, prices may weaken, but the foundation is still operating. Infrastructure continues to be built, products are still being developed, and the market is gradually eliminating unsustainable expectations. A truly negative market is not a falling market, but one where no one is patient enough to keep building. And crypto is not currently in that state.
Keeping a bullish perspective isn't about denying risk, but about distinguishing between short-term volatility and a fundamental shift in nature.
3. Stay Bullish isn't about not seeing red, it's about knowing what you're doing when the market is red
Stay bullish doesn't mean the market has to be green every day. On the contrary, most of the time spent by those who secure large profits in crypto involves experiencing many red days.
Stay bullish means: Not panicking when your account is in the negativeNot abandoning your portfolio just because of a few uncomfortable months,Holding tight to carefully selected positions,

And patiently accumulating while the market still offers opportunities. In phases like this, DCA is not about catching the bottom, but about improving your entry price with discipline. Splitting capital and deploying it at the right rhythm, frequency, and into the right assets helps investors survive long enough to wait for the true bull run to return.

A bull run doesn't reward the person who enters at the exact bottom, but usually rewards the person who stays long enough and doesn't eliminate themselves from the game.
The market does not reward blind optimism,But it also rarely favors those who leave as soon as things get difficult.
If you can still maintain your patience, keep learning, keep improving your strategy, and preserve your position. Then perhaps you have done the most important thing: stayed until the cycle is complete.
Stay Hungry – keep your clarity and hunger for learning. Stay Bullish – do not give up while the market is still testing you 👍

#Fualnguyen #LongTermAnalysis #LongTermInvestment

Quand le marché entre en zone de turbulences, les masques tombent. Les actifs fragiles sont les premiers à céder, tandis que les plus solides sont mis à l'épreuve. C’est dans ces moments-là que la vérité des chiffres parle.
La résilience face aux leaders
Le contraste est aujourd'hui frappant. Alors que l'ETH a chuté de plus de 25% et que des actifs comme SOL ou XRP affichent des baisses supérieures à 20%, le BTC recule de 13%. De son côté, le BNB limite la casse avec seulement 12 à 13% de baisse, s'imposant comme l'actif le plus performant du top market cap.
Pas besoin de bruit pour prouver sa force
Le BNB n'est peut-être pas celui qui explose le plus fort en plein "bull run" euphorique, mais il est rarement le premier à s'effondrer quand la panique s'empare des échanges.
Après avoir testé ses zones de support à plusieurs reprises, le BNB n'a pas besoin d'une cassure spectaculaire pour prouver sa solidité. Rester ferme, c'est déjà une démonstration de force.
Le silence de la panique
Dans ces phases de doute, le BNB ne répond pas par des promesses ou du marketing. Il répond par sa structure de prix, par la confiance du capital et par une stabilité qui tranche avec l'agitation ambiante.
L'essentiel à retenir : La résilience parle bien plus fort que les pics de prix éphémères. 💎
#Fualnguyen #BNBholic #Crypto #BNB #Resilience

The market is not just a place where prices go up or down.It is a place where each participant stands in a very different position, even though everyone is looking at the same chart.
Bullish traders are finally stepping in to buy the dip across Bitcoin and altcoins after prices printed new 2026 lows, yet the repeated selling at intraday highs suggests one thing clearly: this correction is not over.
Bitcoin broke below the November 2025 low near $80,600 and slid to the critical support around $74,508. Momentum indicators like RSI have fallen into oversold territory, hinting at a potential relief rally, but any rebound toward the $80,600–$84,000 zone is likely to meet heavy selling pressure. A failure there would reopen the risk of a deeper move, with $60,000 emerging as the next major downside level.

Ethereum tells a similar story. After losing the $2,623 support, ETH fell toward the $2,111 zone. Oversold conditions suggest a bounce is possible, but unless price can reclaim the moving averages, rallies remain vulnerable. Below $2,111, the market starts to talk seriously about $1,750.

This is the environment in which Michael Saylor and Tom Lee continue to speak, invest, and stand firm in public.

Michael Saylor on the Bitcoin Chart
Michael Saylor stands on the Bitcoin chart with something most market participants do not have: time and access to capital.

Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings were accumulated at an average cost around $76,000 per BTC, placing his position uncomfortably close to current structural support. From a trader’s perspective, this is far from ideal. From a corporate allocator’s perspective, however, it is survivable.
Saylor does not need perfect timing. His real job is to keep capital flowing into the company, maintain conviction among shareholders and creditors, and ensure the balance sheet can withstand volatility. As long as that capital machine continues to operate, price weakness remains a condition—not a failure.

Tom Lee on the Ethereum Chart - A $6 Billion Reality
Tom Lee’s position on Ethereum looks composed in interviews, but the numbers tell a far harsher story. According to portfolio data, total capital invested stands at approximately $15.65 billion, while the current portfolio value has declined to around $9.74 billion. This implies an unrealized loss of nearly $5.9 billion, equivalent to a drawdown of roughly –37%.

On the chart, Tom Lee is not standing above moving averages. He is standing deep below them, in a zone where most individual investors would already be forced to capitulate. Yet this is precisely where the structural difference becomes clear.
Tom Lee does not need to be right on timing. He does not need to catch bottoms or avoid drawdowns. His responsibility is to maintain the thesis, protect the narrative, and keep capital committed long enough for the cycle to turn.
The thesis can be early. The drawdown can be brutal. But his role allows him to endure a multi-billion-dollar loss without being forced out of the market.

And Me - on the BNB Chart with a Cost Basis of $881
Now place me on the chart.
BNB is currently trading around $773, while my average cost is $881. Technically, the structure has weakened significantly. The uptrend line has broken. The former support at $790 has flipped into resistance. The nearest supports now lie around $730, with a deeper zone near $700.

Unlike Michael Saylor, I do not have infinite time. Unlike Tom Lee, I do not have a narrative engine or institutional patience behind me. And I do not have a company capable of continuously attracting fresh capital.
What I have is limited and fragile: my own psychology, personal cash flow, and discipline.

The Core Difference: Their Role vs. the Individual Investor
Michael Saylor and Tom Lee do not need to predict price correctly. They can be wrong - sometimes extremely wrong - for long periods of time. Because their role is not survival as individuals. Their role is to manage capital flows, perception, and time.
Personal investing is fundamentally different. As an individual investor, you are simultaneously: the representative, the worker generating income, the capital provider, and the price forecaster.
There is no investor relations department, no bonds, no way to borrow time from the market.
When you are wrong, you absorb the entire impact.
A Strategy That Actually Fits Individual Investors
That is why the smartest strategy for an individual investor is not to outperform Michael Saylor or Tom Lee in price prediction. The real edge lies in reducing pressure on yourself.
You do not need to be right immediately.You do not need to catch the exact bottom. You do not need to flip your position in a single move.
What matters is continuing to work normally, maintaining stable personal cash flow, and waiting for the opportunity to improve your position using sufficiently strong idle capital at the right price level.
This is not weakness. It is a correct understanding of your role.

Michael Saylor stands on the chart with time and capital. Tom Lee stands on the chart with thesis and narrative, even while carrying nearly $6 billion in unrealized losses. I stand on the BNB chart with a cost basis of $881, holding only one real advantage: the right not to rush.

No one passes through a storm unscathed. But markets consistently reward those who still have capital, remain mentally clear, and are patient enough to wait for the right moment. That is how an individual investor survives a downtrend.
Reference: Cointelegraph, Beincrypto, Phemex, CoinGlass
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