Don't Be Deceived by the Upcoming XRP Rise

The main logic of this chart is to show how much Exchange Supply Share (ESS) XRP is held on exchanges. If ESS rises, it means XRP is entering the exchange;

if ESS falls, it means XRP is leaving the exchange. The chart shows an inverse correlation between ESS and price.

Specifically, between February and April 2025, ESS showed a steady decline. The price initially moved sideways, then broke sharply upwards. The withdrawal of supply from the exchange caused a delayed price reaction.

Between July and September 2025, conversely, ESS rose. While the price showed high volatility, a peak formation was followed by a decline.

October 2025 is very critical. Following a sharp drop in ESS, the price experienced a sharp dump. It's important to interpret the ESS drop not as a panic sell-off, but as a simultaneous liquidity drain along with the price drop.

Between November and December 2025, the lack of volume in the market also affected XRP. ESS remained at very low levels, moving sideways, and the price slowly declined.

Currently, the ESS is in a bottoming zone, and the SMA(30), SMA(50), and SMA(100) are above the price. This means the supply side is now stable, with the price around $1.9. The price is still reacting weakly to the ESS. This pattern has generally caused the price to push upwards with a delay in the past. When the ESS stayed at a bottom for 2-4 weeks, the price first experienced a rebound, then a trend began. We are currently at the beginning of the same phase, but unlike the past, there is no volume confirmation. Therefore, the rise may remain a rebound. $XRP