Crypto has had a lacklustre 2025, and we may have an even worse 2026. Despite reaching new all-time highs, BTC has not delivered as much as people hoped, while most Altcoins continue bleeding against it.
Assuming the four-year cycle is still intact (as we have had nothing to signal otherwise), 2026 should be a bear market for the asset class, where accumulation opportunities will present themselves. To build on this further, the chart highlights a similar area with regard to monetary policy, which is presenting itself again today. By taking a similar bar pattern and overlaying it, we can see a potential outcome for the year.
I believe the bleed will be relatively slow throughout the year and should reach its cycle lows approximately one year after the 2025 cycle highs, which happened in October. As social interest has been low for this cycle, I don’t believe this will cause any major sharp capitulations—more likely, we’ll see temporary moves to the upside along the way.
As a conservative target for the year, I believe BTC should go below $65,000. Good accumulation opportunities should form in the later part of the year as metals start to slow down and experience some pullbacks. I believe a realistic cycle low could form around $50,000, but I will spread my dynamic DCA over multiple months to capture price action below $65,000 and ensure I have enough cash available if BTC decides to head even lower.
