Nobody wants to say it. But the U.S. debt crisis is real, and itās about to drain liquidity from every market on the planet. Not maybe. Not eventually. Mechanically.
š„ THE NUMBER THAT BREAKS EVERYTHING
25% of U.S. debt matures in the next 12 months.
Thatās over $10 TRILLION that must be refinanced. No delay. No workaround. This is the largest debt wall in modern history.
ā” WHY NOW IS WORSE THAN 2020
Back then:
Rates ~0%
Money was free
Liquidity was endless
Today:
Policy rate ~3.75%
Borrowing costs soar
Bond buyers demand yield
Liquidity already tight
Same debt, toxic now.
š„ WHAT HAPPENS NEXT
The Treasury has no choice: massive bond issuance.
Every dollar buying Treasuries is a dollar pulled from stocks, crypto, metals, risk assets, and emerging markets.
š« RATE CUTS WONāT SAVE YOU
Markets hope for 2ā3 cuts. Reality check:
Debt volume still massive
Refinancing costs far higher than 2020
Bond supply unavoidable
This isnāt a recession call. Itās a liquidity event.
š WHY CRYPTO & RISK ASSETS BLEED FIRST
Crypto and risk assets thrive on excess liquidity. When itās pulled:
Leverage unwinds
Weak hands exit
Volatility explodes
Only the strongest survive.
ā³ THE 12ā24 MONTH GRIND
This debt wall wonāt vanish overnight. Expect:
Continuous bond issuance
Persistent liquidity pressure
Volatility across all global markets
ā ļø THE U.S. HAS NO EASY PATH
Options = Pain:
Issue more debt ā drains liquidity
Monetize debt ā dollar weakens
Financial repression ā markets distort
š” WHAT INVESTORS MUST DO
This isnāt fear-mongeringāitās reality.
Liquidity > narratives
Macro > micro
Risk management > hopium
The winners wonāt be the loudestātheyāll be the ones who see liquidity leaving before it hits the market.
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