These are the upcoming crypto events that may impact crypto the most:
Sep 16–17 FOMC Meeting – 88% chance of rate cut, influencing crypto liquidity
Oct 10 Solana ETF Deadline – SEC decision could trigger SOL volatility
Oct 23 Cardano ETF Verdict – Approval may boost ADA institutional adoption
Dec 22 Bitcoin Cycle Peak – Historical model suggests possible market top
Dec 30 Spain MiCA Compliance – Accelerated EU regulation may affect exchanges
Deep Dive
1. September 16–17 FOMC Meeting
Overview: Markets price an 88% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut, driven by cooling inflation and political pressure. A dovish shift could weaken the dollar, boosting crypto as a risk asset.
What this means: Crypto markets may rally if cuts proceed, but delayed action or hawkish surprises could trigger liquidations. Watch Bitcoin’s correlation with gold (recent 7-day +0.68) for safe-haven cues.
(MarketWatch)
2. October 10 Solana ETF Deadline
Overview: SEC faces its first deadline to approve/reject spot Solana ETFs. Analysts give 95% approval odds due to CFTC-regulated SOL futures.
What this means: Approval could mirror Bitcoin ETF inflows ($54.8B AUM), while rejection might pressure altcoins. SOL derivatives OI surged +65.66% weekly, signaling speculative positioning.
(CoinDesk)
3. October 23 Cardano ETF Decision
Overview: Grayscale’s ADA trust conversion faces SEC verdict. Polymarket odds fell from 89% to 75% amid regulatory scrutiny of staking mechanics.
What this means: Approval could unlock ADA’s $28.7B market cap for TradFi portfolios, while delays may extend its underperformance vs XRP (+9.7% weekly).
(Bitget)
4. December 22 Bitcoin Cycle Peak
Overview: A historical cycle model projects BTC could peak near $200K by December, though trader Peter Brandt sees 30% odds of an earlier top.
What this means: Watch for divergence between spot ETF inflows (currently $143.69B AUM) and derivatives OI ($932.17B) to gauge exhaustion risks.
(Bitcoinist)
5. December 30 Spain MiCA Transition
Overview: Spain enforces EU crypto regulations 6 months early, requiring exchanges to obtain licenses and comply with strict AML/KYC rules.
What this means: Short-term operational hurdles for exchanges, but long-term legitimacy boost. Spain’s $1.3B crypto market may see consolidation.
(CoinMarketCap)
Conclusion
Most impactful event: The September FOMC meeting holds maximum near-term sway, with crypto’s -0.4% market cap dip today reflecting rate cut uncertainty. Monitor Fed guidance and Bitcoin’s $112K support – a break below could signal broader deleveraging. For altcoins, October’s ETF decisions will test whether the “altseason” index (current 53/100) can sustain its +47% monthly gain.
