ustreasury

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A substantial and coordinated shift by key BRICS countries—China, India, and Brazil—away from US Treasury bonds, having collectively sold about $183.2 billion worth of these securities from October 2024 to October 2025. Instead, these nations are significantly increasing their gold reserves, now exceeding 3,350 tons valued at around $430-450 billion, as a hedge against risks associated with the US dollar. This movement is seen as part of a broader de-dollarization effort triggered by geopolitical tensions, including concerns over the US using the dollar as a geopolitical weapon and political instability in Washington.
Market Sentiment
Investor sentiment among BRICS nations reflects growing mistrust and anxiety toward dependence on the US dollar, with the move away from Treasuries perceived as a defensive act. The accumulation of gold underscores a shift toward traditional, tangible assets as a safeguard against currency volatility and geopolitical risks. Private investors have so far absorbed the selling pressure in the US Treasury market, maintaining short-term stability; however, the trend is causing concerns about potential long-term impacts on the dollar and US debt markets.
Past & Future Forecast
- Past: De-dollarization efforts have gained traction since 2022 following high-profile sanctions and asset freezes involving Russian dollar assets. Historically, geopolitical tensions have prompted central banks to diversify reserves away from dollar-denominated assets, with gold serving as a reliable hedge during times of instability.
- Future: If this trend continues or accelerates in 2026, it could lead to further weakening of US Treasury demand from some of the biggest holders, pressuring US bond yields upward and potentially causing dollar depreciation. JPMorgan’s bearish forecast for the dollar in 2026 supports this view, predicting softer dollar exchange rates, which may encourage further gold demand by BRICS nations.
Resultant Effect
The ongoing sell-off of US Treasuries by BRICS countries strains the US bond market, raising risks of higher yields and increased borrowing costs for the US government over time. The movement toward gold and away from dollar assets contributes to volatility in currency markets and could accelerate the emergence of a multipolar global financial system less dominated by the US dollar. This shift introduces systemic risks to dollar-based liquidity and could impact global asset allocations and international trade settlements.
Investment Strategy
Recommendation: Hold
- Rationale: The BRICS move away from US Treasuries and growing gold accumulation signals a significant geopolitical and financial trend that will unfold over years rather than days. Retail investors should maintain current positions, avoiding rash reactions while awaiting clearer market direction influenced by US monetary policy and global economic conditions.
- Execution Strategy: Continue monitoring key indicators such as US Treasury yields, dollar exchange rates, and gold prices. Adjust positions incrementally if momentum toward de-dollarization accelerates or if volatility spikes.
- Risk Management: Use trailing stops to protect gains on gold-related assets, and diversify holdings to mitigate risks from currency fluctuations and geopolitical tensions. Stay alert to macroeconomic data and central bank policy announcements that could influence the trajectory of the dollar and commodities.
This approach aligns with institutional strategies emphasizing risk management, patient capital deployment, and diversified exposure, recognizing that geopolitical shifts take time to fully materialize in markets.#brics #UStreasury #china #lndia #bricsbuyinggold


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Operațiunile recente de răscumpărare a datoriilor ale Trezoreriei Statelor Unite, exemplificate de ultima tranșă de 735 milioane de dolari, nu sunt evenimente izolate, ci componente integrale ale unei strategii macroeconomice sofisticate. La începutul anului 2026, pe măsură ce dinamica lichidității globale continuă să evolueze, înțelegerea "mecanismului de transmisie" din finanțele tradiționale (TradFi) în spațiul activelor digitale devine esențială. Această analiză utilizează un model de expansiune a agregatelor monetare și un cadru de corelație a activelor cu risc pentru a identifica sectoare pregătite pentru un impact semnificativ.

Execuția recentă a Trezoreriei SUA a unei răscumpărări de datorie de 735 milioane este o manevră strategică într-o politică fiscală mai amplă din 2026, menită să îmbunătățească infrastructura pieței. Deși aparent un instrument pentru gestionarea datoriilor interne, aceste operațiuni exercită un efect cuantificabil de "trickle-down" asupra activelor digitale—în special asupra celor profund integrate în arhitectura financiară americană.
Mecanica Transmisiei Lichidității
Funcționarea răscumpărării datoriilor prin schimbul titlurilor de trezorerie mai vechi, mai puțin lichide "off-the-run" pentru numerar. Acest proces crește viteza banilor în rețeaua dealerilor primari (bănci mari). Într-un mediu macro în care Rezerva Federală gestionează o tranziție delicată către rate mai mici ale dobânzilor, aceste operațiuni de trezorerie oferă "uleiul" necesar pentru a preveni fricțiunea pe piețele de credit.