Silver futures surged to a high of $121.75 before experiencing a dramatic intraday reversal, plummeting below $107 and settling near $110. This volatility underscores the metal's capacity for rapid declines.
Analyst Przemysław Radomski highlights that the long-anticipated $120 target has now been reached. Citing historical precedent—specifically the 2011 crash where silver erased two months of gains in just six days—he suggests a similar, severe correction could potentially drive prices back toward $50, though a less volatile decline is also possible.
The article identifies several intermarket warning signals that the top may be in:
Stock Market Breakdown: The S&P 500's failure to hold above its 2025 highs has triggered pronounced declines in precious metals, serving as a critical bearish clue.
Sector Divergence: While gold and silver ETFs (GLD, SLV) are up week-over-week, mining stocks (GDXJ) are down—a classic sign of a weakening rally.
Bitcoin's Slide: Bitcoin’s accelerating decline, following a verified breakdown from its flag pattern, adds to the risk-off sentiment.
Gold's Volatility: Gold itself exhibited extreme intraday volatility, soaring and then plunging by nearly $500, hinting at potential exhaustion.
Key Points:
Target Reached, Top Likely: Silver has hit the long-projected $120+ target, suggesting a major peak may now be in place.
Extreme Volatility & Historical Precedent: The intraday reversal from $121.75 to below $107 demonstrates silver's potential for swift crashes, mirroring the 2011 collapse.
Critical Role of Stock Market Weakness: The invalidation of the stock market's breakout is identified as the key trigger for the sharp decline in precious metals.
Bearish Confirmations from Other Assets:
Miner Underperformance: The decline in mining stocks despite gains in metals is a hallmark of a topping pattern.
Bitcoin Breakdown: Bitcoin’s accelerating downtrend reinforces a broader risk-averse environment.
Gold's Intraday Plunge: Gold's massive $500 intraday drop signals potential widespread weakness in the precious metals sector.
Expectations:
The primary expectation is that silver has likely completed its rally and has begun a significant corrective phase.
While a crash mirroring 2011 (potentially to ~$50) is presented as a possible scenario, the analyst allows for a less drastic decline.
The outlook for the entire precious metals complex (silver, gold, miners) is now bearish in the near term, contingent on continued weakness in the general stock market and the persistence of the identified sector divergences.
Bitcoin's decline is expected to continue, with short positions viewed favorably from a risk/reward perspective.
