Bitcoin surged despite PMI below 50, showing manufacturing alone doesn’t drive crypto moves.
Historical BTC tops aligned with PMI above 55, so current readings suggest more upside ahead.
Next key macro signal is the Feb 2 PMI print, likely influencing the cycle’s “blow off” top.
Bitcoin investors will need to stay patient because the bigger bull run hasn’t kicked in yet. U.S. manufacturing activity, measured by the ISM PMI, has stayed below 50 since 2023, which usually signals the economy is shrinking rather than growing. Still, Bitcoin shot up from $16,000 to over $73,000, showing that manufacturing data alone doesn’t predict its price moves.
Ignas | DeFi called this out, saying, “BTC price prediction based on Manufacturing PMI is dumb…” PMI stayed below 50 in 2023 and early 2024, yet BTC pumped from $16k to $73k.” He added, “Claiming Bitcoin is driven by liquidity, institutional adoption (now ETFs), gold, and fiscal dominance makes sense. Manufacturing doesn’t.”
Manufacturing Weakness vs. Bitcoin Momentum
U.S. manufacturing remains subdued, contributing less than 15% to GDP, while services dominate roughly 80%. Satoshi Flipper noted, “The bull market Bitcoin blow off top starts forming when this PMI index starts printing above 50 again, until then .... PATIENCE.”
The ISM Manufacturing PMI has fluctuated narrowly between 47 and 49 since late 2022, signaling stability without expansion. Recent readings include 48.7 in August 2025, 49.1 in September, and 47.9 by December. Consequently, manufacturing’s lack of momentum fails to trigger strong economic acceleration or sustained dollar strength, factors traditionally tied to market tops.
What This Means for Bitcoin Investors
Historically, Bitcoin cycle tops coincided with PMI peaks above 55. Brain of AskGigabrain explained, “The 2017 top saw PMI at ~60, and the 2021 top hit as PMI hovered near record highs of 61.” With the December print at 47.9 and January forecasts flat, the euphoric phase is delayed.
Consequently, this cycle may evolve into an extended “supercycle” rather than a standard halving peak. As of writing, Bitcoin trades at $89,493.19, up 0.61% in the last 24 hours, with $32.2 billion in 24-hour trading volume. The next major macro signal arrives with the February 2nd PMI print
The post Bitcoin Cycle Tops: PMI Below 50 Delays Bull Run appears on Crypto Front News. Visit our website to read more interesting articles about cryptocurrency, blockchain technology, and digital assets.
