INSIGHTER Yi Xi

Russian media has begun acknowledging a critical shift inside the country’s financial reserves. Over the past three years, Russia has reportedly sold nearly 71 percent of the gold held in its National Wealth Fund, reducing holdings from around 554.9 tons in mid 2022 to roughly 160.2 tons by the start of 2026. The remaining gold is reportedly held in non transparent accounts at the central bank, limiting flexibility and visibility.
This matters because the National Wealth Fund functions as Russia’s financial shock absorber. It is designed to support the budget during periods of low energy prices, fund infrastructure and stabilize the economy under stress. Today, the fund’s liquid assets, including gold and yuan holdings, are estimated at about 4.1 trillion rubles. Analysts warn that if oil prices and the ruble remain near current levels, as much as 60 percent of the remaining liquid reserves could be drawn down within a single year.
Such a pace would significantly weaken Russia’s ability to sustain long term spending. A shrinking reserve base reduces fiscal room for social programs, infrastructure investment and extended military commitments. Unlike short term budget adjustments, reserve depletion is difficult to reverse quickly, especially under sanctions and restricted access to global capital markets.
From a global perspective, this development highlights how prolonged geopolitical and economic pressure reshapes national balance sheets. Gold has long been viewed as Russia’s strategic hedge against isolation. A sharp reduction in those holdings signals rising financial strain rather than confidence. For markets, this is not just a Russia specific story. It underscores how macro stress eventually forces even large economies to consume their safety nets.
The key question going forward is sustainability. Reserve drawdowns can buy time, but they cannot replace growth or restore external access. As reserves thin, policy choices narrow, and financial resilience becomes harder to maintain. This is a slow moving story, but one with long term consequences worth watching closely.
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#Plasma