๐จ WILL THE MARKET DUMP HARD ON SATURDAY??
There's a 78% chance of a US government shutdown before Jan 31, according to Polymarket.
So what does a โshutdownโ actually mean?
Think of the US government like a massive company.
If Congress does not approve funding by the deadline, parts of that company lose access to money.
That is a shutdown.
What happens during a shutdown?
- Non-essential federal workers are furloughed without pay
- Essential workers still work but get paid later
-Social Security, Medicare, and the military keep running
The system does not collapse.
But it runs with limited visibility.
Why do markets care?
Because data gets delayed.
During past shutdowns:
- Jobs reports were postponed
- Inflation data was delayed
- Policymakers had less real-time information
Markets price risk using data.
When visibility drops, risk models pull back.
Spreads widen. Volatility rises.
Not panic. Just uncertainty being priced in.
What history shows
- Markets often stay calm at first.
- Pressure builds quietly.
- Reactions tend to lag the headlines.
Why this weekend matters?
If no deal is reached by Jan 31:
- Shutdown risk becomes real
- Weekend uncertainty increases
- Markets reopen with gaps, not warnings
This is not about politics. It is about visibility and risk.
If youโre holding exposure, size it knowing surprises can hit when markets are closed.