$DUSK $ZKC $AUCTION
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๐จ BREAKING: The US government will shut down in 6 days.
Last time this happened, gold and silver made new ATHs.
But if youโre holding stocks or risk assets, be extremely careful.
Weโre heading into a total data blackout.
Here are the 4 real threats ๐
1๏ธโฃ Data blackout
No CPI. No jobs reports.
The Fed and risk models go blind.
VIX must reprice higher to reflect uncertainty.
2๏ธโฃ Collateral shock
With existing credit warnings, a shutdown could trigger a downgrade.
Repo margins spike.
Liquidity gets destroyed.
3๏ธโฃ Liquidity freeze
The RRP buffer is dry.
There is no safety net left.
If dealers start hoarding cash, funding markets seize up.
4๏ธโฃ Recession trigger
Each week of shutdown cuts ~0.2% of GDP.
Thatโs enough to tip a stalling economy into a technical recession.
๐ During the last major funding stress (March 2020),
the SOFRโIORB spread blew out.
๐ Watch the SOFRโIORB spread.
If it starts gapping, it means private markets are starving for cash while the Fed sits on a pile of it โ exactly what we saw in 2020.
This sounds scary โ but donโt worry.
#GoldSilverAtRecordHighs #USIranMarketImpact
