#USJobsData $ETH US Economy: The Post-Shutdown Hangover & False Breakouts (November 23, 2025)
Verdict: CAUTIOUS SHORT / HEDGE (Macro data is lagging; Technicals scream "Correction").
1. Economic Snapshot: The "Ghost Data" Problem
The US economy is currently flying blind due to the recently concluded 43-day federal government shutdown. The data released this week is severely lagged (September figures), creating a dangerous disconnect between market optimism and economic reality.
⚠️ Labor Market Illusion:
Headline: The US added 119,000 jobs in September (beating the 51k forecast).
The Trap: August data was quietly revised down to a net LOSS of 4,000 jobs.
Unemployment: Ticked up to 4.4% (highest since 2021). This is a classic recessionary signal disguised as "resilience."
📉 GDP Growth vs. Reality:
Q3 Estimate (GDPNow): Tracking at a robust 4.2%.
The shutdown impact: Analysts estimate the shutdown shaved 0.5% off Q4 GDP, but this won't show up in official prints until early 2026.
🏦 Fed Policy Pivot:
Rates were cut to 3.75%–4.00% earlier this month.
Problem: With "ghost data" and sticky inflation (CPI +0.3% in Sept), the market is rapidly pricing OUT a December rate cut. Liquidity could dry up fast.
2. Technical Analysis (The Charts Don't Lie)
A. S&P 500 (SPX) – The Bull Trap
Current Level: ~6,538
Structure: The index has broken below its short-term rising trend channel.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 6,750 (The "Ceiling" – bulls need to reclaim this to invalidate the correction).
Support: 6,530 (Immediate) \rightarrow 6,412 (Critical downside target).
Indicator: RSI is trending down (divergence), signaling exhausted buying power. The breakdown below the 100-day moving average is a major red flag.
B. US Dollar Index (DXY) – King Dollar Returns
Current Level: 100.21
Trend: Bullish Breakout.
Signal: DXY has decisively broken the psychological 100.00 barrier for the first time in 7 months.
Implication: A stronger dollar usually crushes risk
