fedwatch2025

🚨 The Warsh “Trojan Horse”
Peter Schiff warns that Trump’s Fed pick, Kevin Warsh, may be more style than substance. Tagged as an “Inflation Hawk,” Warsh could actually enable stealthy rate cuts while keeping markets calm.
📌 Key Takeaways:
• Hawk label = credibility by proxy
• Rate cuts may come quietly
• Dollar may hold short-term; gold & hard assets could surge later
$ARDR $D $ZK
#BREAKING #FedWatch2025 #Stealthaddresses #GoldAlert #CryptoMarkets

$BTC FedWatch Market Probabilities (CME Tool)
Markets that track Fed funds futures — via the CME FedWatch Tool — are pricing the likelihood of policy changes at upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. Recent probability estimates show:
• Very high odds of no change (hold) at January 2026 meeting: Market models indicate that majorities of traders believe the Fed will keep rates unchanged at the current level rather than cut or raise them this week. �
Phemex
• Modest chances of future cuts later in 2026: Looking beyond January, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in early 2026 (e.g., March) is significantly higher than for January — reflecting some expectations that easing could return if inflation softens further and economic data weaken. �
Phemex
(Note: exact percentages vary across outlets, with some showing ~75–80% odds of a hold and sub-25% odds of a cut for the January meeting — but no strong expectation of a rate hike at this point.) �
MEXC
#FedWatch #FedWatchb #FedWatch2025

🔥 Gold & Silver Are Flashing a Global Alarm 🔥
This isn’t a normal rally — it’s a warning.

Precious metals are exploding upward, but the speed of this move tells a deeper story.
🟡 Gold: ~$5,050
⚪ Silver: ~$108
Silver jumping 7%+ in one session is not healthy price action. This looks less like bullish confidence and more like panic protection.
📊 Derivatives Market Confirms the Stress:
• $XAU /USDT → 5,046 (+0.04%)
• $XAG /USDT → 108.81 (+4.08%)

Silver is leading aggressively — a classic sign that fear is spreading faster than optimism.

🌍 Physical Markets Are Screaming Even Louder:
• 🇨🇳 China → ~$134/oz silver
• 🇯🇵 Japan → ~$139/oz silver
That premium isn’t random.
It reflects tight supply, rising demand, and distrust in paper markets.
🏦 The Fed Has No Easy Exit:
• ✂️ Rate cuts → Gold could sprint toward $6,000
• 🧊 Hold rates → Pressure builds on stocks & real estate
Either path carries pain.
💡 Market Message:
Gold is quietly saying “preserve wealth.”
Silver is shouting “something is breaking.”
When metals move like this, it’s not speculation —
it’s capital running for safety.
⏳ The next few sessions could define the trend. Stay alert. 👀🔥
#Gold #Silver #XAUUSDT #XAGUSDT #SafeHaven #FedWatch2025 #DollarIndexHighestSinceJuly #HardAssets #BinanceSquare

🏦 The Market Has Fully Priced In a 100% Chance of a Fed Rate Cut Next Week

But the cut itself isn’t the story —
the signal behind it is.

When the market prices in a move at 100%, it means expectations have replaced uncertainty.
So the real surprise isn’t if the Fed cuts…
It’s what happens after.

⸻

💡 Rate cuts are easy to predict.
Liquidity shifts are not.

Because rate cuts ≠ liquidity injections.
The real story lives in:
• System reserves
• Repo markets
• Credit spreads

⸻

In past cycles, policy led liquidity.
Today, liquidity leads policy.

Markets move first.
The Fed follows signals they don’t want to see.

⸻

📊 For traders, this setup means:
• Price in early before the move
• Fade the post-cut rally
• Track real liquidity metrics:
ON RRP, TGA, and bank reserves.

👉 Flow matters more than the Fed.

⸻

25bps vs 50bps doesn’t change direction —
it changes the tone.
• 25bps = “We’re cautious.”
• 50bps = “We’re behind.”

The message drives momentum.

⸻

When everyone expects the cut,
the market shifts focus to what comes next — liquidity.

Policy sets the narrative.
Liquidity sets the trend.

And this time,
traders are one step ahead of the Fed.

$BNB #BinanceSquare #CryptoMarkets #VietCryptoNews #bitcoin #FedWatch2025