On-chain data suggests $BTC is entering a cooldown phase, not a full capitulation. Recent drawdowns lacked sustained extreme signals, pointing to profit-taking and pressure release, not structural breakdown.
The Cycle Extreme Oscillator shows brief spikes that faded quickly — unlike cycle tops, which require clustered and persistent extremes. The Cycle Extremes Index sits near 28–30%, well below euphoric levels, with bear signals scattered rather than concentrated.
From a valuation view, Bitcoin trades below its adjusted MVRV baseline, but not in deep undervaluation. Past crash phases needed prolonged MVRV breakdowns and strong downside momentum — not yet visible.
Momentum has cooled, but on-chain signals suggest a transition phase, not a confirmed bear-market reset.
