Halving cycles are front-run. In 2020, the 'pump' started 180 days BEFORE the event, not after. The retail FOMO is always late. Miners aren't the sell pressure you think. ETF flows now dwarf mining issuance, making supply shocks less predictable and more volatile. The 'digital gold' narrative is weak. Bitcoin's correlation with Nasdaq is near 0.75—it's a macro risk asset, not a hedge in a crisis.

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