cryptopulse9

Trump just announced new tariffs at the World Economic Forum…

Meanwhile, the U.S. Supreme Court is holding a vote to cancel the tariffs altogether.

If you own stocks, crypto, or literally any risk asset, read this carefully:

Tariffs stay = DUMP
Tariffs removed = DUMP

THERE IS NO BULL CASE HERE.

And most people still don’t understand this.

Before we even get to tariffs, look at where the market already is.

→ The Buffett Indicator (Total Market Cap to GDP) just touched ~224%.
That’s the highest level EVER.
Well above the Dot-Com peak (~150%) and higher than the 2021 top.

→ The Shiller P/E is sitting near 40.
This has only happened ONCE in the last 150 years, right before the market collapse in 2000.

This market is priced for perfection.
It can’t survive a hiccup - let alone a trade shock.

Now here’s where it gets dangerous…

1⃣ TODAY: TRUMP AT DAVOS

Trump is speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
Global leaders, CEOs, and markets are listening for one thing: trade policy direction.

Any hint of escalation or defiance will be taken as a green light for volatility.

And the risks are already stacked.

2⃣ THE “GREENLAND” ESCALATION

10% tariffs on European allies (France, Germany, UK, etc.) set to begin Feb 1.
These directly hit multinationals trading at ~22x earnings.

There is ZERO margin for error.

3⃣ THE CONSTITUTIONAL FLASHPOINT

Whispers are growing that the Supreme Court may rule Trump’s IEEPA tariffs ILLEGAL.

Anyone who’s been around long enough knows what that means:
THERE IS NO POSITIVE OUTCOME.

Let’s walk through it.

SCENARIO A: TARIFFS STAND (INFLATION + MARGIN SHOCK)

→ Corporate margins get crushed.
Companies can’t push 10–20% cost increases onto already exhausted consumers.
They absorb it.

→ History reminder: In 2002, Bush’s steel tariffs wiped out 200,000 jobs in steel-using industries - more than the entire steel workforce.
Markets dumped.

→ In 2018, mere tariff threats triggered instant sell-offs (CAC 40 down 1.7% in a single day, Apple off 2.6%).

Bottom line: 2026 earnings expectations are about 15% too optimistic.

SCENARIO B: TARIFFS VOIDED (LEGAL + SOLVENCY SHOCK)

→ The Refund Bomb: If tariffs are ruled illegal, the U.S. government potentially owes billions back to importers.

→ The Smoot-Hawley Echo: In 1930, markets fell 16% before the bill was even signed - purely on anticipation.

→ If courts rule against Trump, the administration won’t just accept it.
Expect Section 232, executive orders, or emergency powers to block refunds.

Markets fear legal chaos and fiscal instability more than they fear taxes.

So pick your poison:

A margin-destroying trade war
OR
A constitutional crisis with insolvency risk

This isn’t a surprise.
This is a known unknown.

I know newer investors don’t want to hear this, but after 20+ years in markets, one truth stands out:

Retail prays for the rally to never end.
Professionals wait patiently for the floor to give way.
Wealth isn’t built at euphoric highs - it’s built when fear takes over.

I’ve called every major market top and bottom over the last decade.

When I make my next move, I’ll post it here publicly.

If you want to outperform the others, just follow me and turn on notifications.

You’ll wish you did it earlier.
#CryptoPulse9

日本の国債利回りは、強い経済ではほとんど起こり得ない方法で動いています。

10Y、20Y、30Y、そして40Yの国債利回りは、今世紀で最高の水準に達しました。

でも、なぜあなたが気にする必要があるのでしょうか？
数十年にわたり、日本は世界で最も安価な資金源でした。

金利はほぼゼロ、時にはマイナスでした。グローバル投資家は円を借りて、その資本を株式、商品、リスク資産に注ぎ込みました。

その安価な資金調達は、グローバル市場の高値の背後にある隠れたエンジンの1つであり、今そのエンジンは壊れつつあります。