federalreserve

Un segnale macro storico ma silenzioso sta lampeggiando — e quasi nessuno ne sta parlando ancora.
Nuovi segni suggeriscono che la Federal Reserve degli Stati Uniti potrebbe essere pronta a intervenire nei mercati valutari, potenzialmente vendendo dollari e comprando yen giapponesi. Se confermato, sarebbe qualcosa che non abbiamo visto in questo secolo.
Ecco perché questo è importante 👇
La Federal Reserve di New York ha già effettuato controlli sui tassi — un classico segnale di allerta precoce che spesso arriva prima di un intervento diretto nel mercato valutario.
E il Giappone?
Il Giappone è sotto seria pressione: • Lo yen è stato schiacciato per anni 📉

Investors are rotating out of tech stocks and into other sectors of the market as the U.S. economy chugs along
Interest-rate cuts can act as a tailwind for stocks, but the market is showing it'll be "just fine" without them, one investment strategist said.
It's no secret that President Donald Trump wants the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. The president has even tried to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook and opened a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell in an attempt to influence the central bank.
Yet as Trump publicly calls for lower rates, investors don't seem too hung up about whether or not they'll get another rate cut this week.
The Fed will convene on Tuesday and Wednesday at its Federal Open Markets Committee meeting, and will announce its interest-rate decision after the meeting concludes Wednesday afternoon. According to CME FedWatch, investors are 97% certain that the Fed will hold rates where they are - and they seem to be OK with that.
"I don't think the market needs a cut, and frankly, I think the market can be just fine without a cut for the early part of this year," Liz Thomas, head of investment strategy at SoFi, told MarketWatch.
Read more: The Fed is expected to stand pat this week. The big question is for how long?
The Fed started its current rate-cutting cycle in September 2024, and since then, investors have given a lot of weight to the possibility of future cuts. As a result, risk-on trades like high-growth tech stocks have been among the market's beneficiaries during this cycle.
But in 2026, we're already starting to see a shift in the stock market away from this trend.
Thomas said that expectations for more rate cuts later in the year aren't what's driving markets right now. As evidence, she pointed to growth sectors - like the tech sector - that have been lagging more cyclical sectors and value stocks for the past few months. Stocks in the energy, industrials and materials sectors have been the early winners of 2026. The small-cap Russell 2000 RUT has also raced ahead of the larger S&P 500 SPX.
"That's a very clear cyclicality signal, and it's not something that's tied to rate cuts or the expectation of looser monetary policy," Thomas said. "So I think investors are optimistic the broadening out in this market [will] continue, and for other sectors to pull some weight as far as returns go."
Investors are making moves based on the economy and earnings
This stock-market broadening has been made possible because the underlying U.S. economy has remained stable.
Investors have been getting more economic data to sink their teeth into, after the U.S. government shutdown resulted in a data drought last fall. Recent economic data has shown that the labor market hit a bit of a soft patch in 2025 but may be recovering, while inflation seems to be mostly under control and GDP growth has been solid.
While it might not be the strongest economy the country has seen, things seem stable. And when the economy is good, it has a rising-tide-lifts-all-boats effect that benefits the cyclical parts of the stock market.
This has manifested in corporate earnings reports. Right now, investors might care more about the quality of earnings than the number of rate cuts expected in 2026.
Large-cap tech names, including the "Magnificent Seven" stocks, drove a lot of the earnings growth in 2024 and 2025. However, the professionals on Wall Street think that the pace of earnings growth for the rest of the S&P 500 will catch up to those seven stocks this year.
This will be put to the test in the coming days. Half of the Magnificent Seven stocks are reporting earnings this week - with Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META) and Tesla (TSLA )reporting earnings on Wednesday, Jan. 28, and Apple (AAPL) reporting on Thursday, Jan. 29.
These large tech companies still make up a significant portion of the S&P 500, so their earnings still matter for the index's day-to-day moves. But as nontech sectors catch up, it could result in a more durable market - one that is less reliant on the performance of those select stocks.
Analysts are sharing their earnings forecasts for the "Magnificent Seven" versus the rest of the S&P 500.
"The S&P 500 is expected to grow earnings by 15% this year and is currently priced around 22-times next year's earnings. We think that GDP growth could be a little better than expected, and valuations could expand modestly if profit margins surprise to the upside," Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy at Global X, told MarketWatch.
Helfstein noted that almost all of the gains the S&P 500 saw last year came during earnings season, which points to a market that is more driven by fundamentals than interest rates. While he said that lower rates are certainly a tailwind, stocks can go higher without them.
"A lower cost of capital as rates comes down can help provide some extra juice, but that is not a precondition for markets to go higher," Helfstein said.
Why upcoming Fed meetings may matter less than you think
Investors may be more focused on earnings and the economy than rates when trying to figure out broader market themes. But that doesn't mean they won't be watching this week's Fed meeting - even if no rate cuts are expected.
"We expect an uneventful FOMC meeting on Jan. 28. There is little reason for the Fed to cut rates right now, especially after cuts at each of the last three meetings," Alex Guiliano, chief investment officer at Resonate Wealth Partners, told MarketWatch.
With the political pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell increasing in recent weeks, investors may be wondering if he'll address the ongoing investigation during his Wednesday press conference. Guiliano said he expects Powell to tread carefully around that topic.
Powell's term as Fed chair is already supposed to end in May - so the investigation comes more as a parting shot as Powell decides whether to serve out his term as a Fed governor.
Trump is expected to pick a new Fed chair in the near future, and Wall Street anticipates that he will pick someone who is more willing to cut rates as the president wants.
Read: Warsh's chances of becoming Fed chair jump as Trump suggests he doesn't want Hassett in that job
"Stock-market volatility could come soon after the next Fed chair takes office midyear, as the market starts to get used to the tone and direction of a new chair," Guiliano said.
If Trump's new Fed chair is indeed inclined to cut rates further, this could result in a more dovish Fed starting this summer. Traders are starting to price this in, with fed funds futures pointing to a 59.4% chance for a rate cut in June. The prospect of future cuts could give the Fed all the more reason to pause during these next few meetings.
But even if the next few Fed meetings are uneventful, investors will still be watching, and markets will be reacting.
"The market has been trained to listen so closely and hang on to every word of Jerome Powell, as if it's going to answer all of our questions for the following 30 to 60 days," SoFi's Thomas told MarketWatch.
She said that all the Fed can really do is point to the data it's looking at, say what looks good and what's concerning, explain how that resulted in its rate-cut decision, and provide projections on where the economy is going. Thomas said she thinks there are other groups that provide economic projections that are just as accurate as the Fed - but because of the Fed's authority, investors give extra weight to the central bank.
This is backed up by historical data. Looking at the average intraday performance of the S&P 500 index on FOMC announcement days shows that the market swings wildly as soon as the Fed chair's press conference begins.
"I think that we do listen maybe too closely for some sort of indicator about what's going to happen in the market, and investors would be better served by tuning out some of that noise," Thomas said. "One of the things I say a lot is that the most dangerous time to trade is between 2 and 2:30 p.m. Eastern time on Fed days."
The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA traded 0.5% lower for the week ending Jan. 23, while the S&P 500 was down roughly 0.4% and Nasdaq Composite COMP fell less than 0.1%. It was the second down week in a row for the three indexes.
This coming week, investors will be watching to see what the Fed announces after its meeting concludes on Wednesday, and will also monitor earnings from several of the "Magnificent Seven" companies on Wednesday and Thursday.