⚠️The Federal Reserve's Empty City Plan for May! Trump Sets Up His Own Rate Cut Trap
Trump nominated Waller to take over the Federal Reserve, wanting to quickly cut rates, but due to the criminal investigation of Powell, he angered Republican Senator Tillis—no end to the investigation, all Federal Reserve personnel appointments are blocked. Trump is determined to investigate thoroughly; if it drags on until May 15 when Powell's term ends, and Waller is not confirmed, the Federal Reserve will face its first true power vacuum in history, with no legal conclusion on the interim leader, and the rate cut plan will be completely suspended!
4 possible outcomes (sorted by probability)
1. Trump compromises (40%): Pauses the investigation to let Waller take over, starts cutting rates in June, risk assets rebound, gold falls
2. Internal push for interim chair (35%): Powell/Jefferson temporarily takes over, rate cuts postponed until September, markets are volatile, dollar is relatively strong
3. Stalemate continues until 2027 (20%): Personnel appointments remain on hold for a long time, policy stagnates, stock market under pressure, gold rises
4. Powell resigns voluntarily (5%): Legal disputes escalate, market experiences violent fluctuations, a low-probability extreme scenario
Core market conclusion
Regardless of the outcome, political interference in the Federal Reserve has become a fact, central bank independence is compromised, long-term beneficial for gold and commodities; the pace of rate cuts is entirely determined by how the stalemate ends, and policy uncertainty remains high!
#美联储 #特朗普鲍威尔互掐 #降息落空 #金融市场 #特朗普称坚定支持加密货币
