đšâ Confidence Cracks: US Consumer Sentiment Hits a 12-Year Low as Recession Fears Mount
âThe disconnect between economic spreadsheets and kitchen table reality has officially reached a breaking point. According to the latest data from Axios and the Conference Board, U.S. consumer confidence has plummeted to its lowest level since May 2014.
âAt a reading of 84.5, we aren't just "worried"âwe are more pessimistic than we were during the height of the 2020 lockdowns or the 2022 inflation spike.
âđ The Anatomy of the Slump
âWhile some indicators show a resilient GDP, the "average" American experience is telling a much darker story:
âThe Sticker Shock Fatigue: Inflation may be "cooling" in technical terms, but the cumulative price hikes since 2021 have created a permanent higher cost of living that wages haven't fully chased down.
âThe "Expectations" Cliff: The index measuring where we think we'll be in six months has fallen to 65.1. In economic history, any number below 80 is essentially a "Recession Incoming" siren.
âA Cooling Labor Market: For the first time in years, the "Jobs Plentiful" sentiment is shrinking. The era of easy job-hopping for a 20% raise is effectively over.
âThe "K-Shaped" Divide
âWe are seeing a massive split in the American experience. While the top earners are watching their portfolios hit all-time highs, the majority of households are feeling the squeeze of "Stagflation Lite"âwhere prices stay high while economic momentum slows.
âBottom Line: People aren't just looking at the numbers; theyâre looking at their bank accounts after the grocery run. Until the "cost of existing" stabilizes, the vibe is likely to stay in the basement.
