Interesting macro take — yen stress + carry unwind can hurt short term, but long term it supports BTC via weaker USD and more liquidity.
Short-term pain, long-term fuel.
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Bluechip
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Yen Intervention Trap – USD Liquidity Flood Mapped
🚨 ARITHMETIC IS MERCILESS : Jan 25, 2026. USDJPY cracks 155.90 (Bloomberg), biggest day surge in 6mo on BOJ/MoF intervention whispers.
NY Fed rate checks = pre-strike signal, first joint US-Japan since Plaza '85. Solo Japan fails ('22, '24 interventions fizzled); coordinated? Dollar down 50% post-'85, gold/comms/non-US assets pumped. Trap: $14T JGB derivs repriced at BOJ 0.75%, yen carry unwind ($300B+ est.) forces asset dumps short-term.
1/ Macro Asymétrie : Fed creates USD, sells for JPY – weakens DXY (already -10% '25), spikes global liq. TGA rebuild offsets shutdown risks, but dovish pivot Q2 '26 (80% odds) amplifies. BTC inverse USD corr 0.92 (record highs vs JPY positive). Prédiction #1: Joint intervene by Feb 15 → DXY <95, BTC gap $95k (delete if DXY >97).
2/ Géo-Sovereign Pivot : Not charity saves US Tsy from Japan dump (10% holdings). China watches: Gallium/silver bans (MOFCOM #68) + Taiwan drills. Houthis Eilat choke (-22%) reroutes via Berbera. Energy nexus: Zaporizhzhia BTC mining bids (IAEA pending) hedges yen stress.
3/ Crypto Edge : Carry flush risks -15% BTC dip (Aug '24 echo: $64k→$49k, $600B wipe). But post-flush: Dollar debase = BTC reprice to '25 ATHs.
MicroStrategy 671k BTC at parity; ETF inflows $25B YTD absorb. Prédiction #2: Yen +5% Q1 → BTC +20% lag (or thread gone).
4/ Reconstruction Map : Collapse: Carry traps burst. Rebuild: Multipolar liq flood, crypto as debase hedge. Arbitrage: Long BTC dips, short JPY carry vol. Full falsifiables in Substack mirror.
Bookmark the flood. Query? We carve.
🚨 ARITHMETIC IS MERCILESS : Jan 25, 2026. USDJPY cracks 155.90 (Bloomberg), biggest day surge in 6mo on BOJ/MoF intervention whispers.
NY Fed rate checks = pre-strike signal, first joint US-Japan since Plaza '85. Solo Japan fails ('22, '24 interventions fizzled); coordinated? Dollar down 50% post-'85, gold/comms/non-US assets pumped. Trap: $14T JGB derivs repriced at BOJ 0.75%, yen carry unwind ($300B+ est.) forces asset dumps short-term.
1/ Macro Asymétrie : Fed creates USD, sells for JPY – weakens DXY (already -10% '25), spikes global liq. TGA rebuild offsets shutdown risks, but dovish pivot Q2 '26 (80% odds) amplifies. BTC inverse USD corr 0.92 (record highs vs JPY positive). Prédiction #1: Joint intervene by Feb 15 → DXY <95, BTC gap $95k (delete if DXY >97).
2/ Géo-Sovereign Pivot : Not charity saves US Tsy from Japan dump (10% holdings). China watches: Gallium/silver bans (MOFCOM #68) + Taiwan drills. Houthis Eilat choke (-22%) reroutes via Berbera. Energy nexus: Zaporizhzhia BTC mining bids (IAEA pending) hedges yen stress.
3/ Crypto Edge : Carry flush risks -15% BTC dip (Aug '24 echo: $64k→$49k, $600B wipe). But post-flush: Dollar debase = BTC reprice to '25 ATHs.
MicroStrategy 671k BTC at parity; ETF inflows $25B YTD absorb. Prédiction #2: Yen +5% Q1 → BTC +20% lag (or thread gone).
4/ Reconstruction Map : Collapse: Carry traps burst. Rebuild: Multipolar liq flood, crypto as debase hedge. Arbitrage: Long BTC dips, short JPY carry vol. Full falsifiables in Substack mirror.
Bookmark the flood. Query? We carve.
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