🔸The last time they shut down, gold and silver jumped to new all-time highs.
🔸But if you’re holding other assets like stocks, you need to be extremely careful…
Because we’re heading into a total data blackout.
📌Here are the 4 specific threats:
🔸The Data: No CPI or jobs reports leaves the Fed and risk models unable to see what’s going on. Volatility (VIX) must reprice higher to account for the uncertainty.
🔸Collateral Shock: With previous credit warnings, a shutdown could trigger a downgrade. This would spike repo margins and destroy liquidity.
🔸Liquidity Freeze: The RRP buffer is dry. There's no safety net left. If dealers start hoarding cash, the funding markets seize up.
🔸Recession Trigger: The economy loses ~0.2% GDP per week of shutdown, potentially tipping a stalling economy into a technical recession.
In the last major funding stress (March 2020), the spread between SOFR and IORB blew out.
🔸Watch the SOFR-IORB spread. If it starts gapping, it means the private market is starving for cash even while the Fed sits on a mountain of it. We saw this in 2020.
🔸This sounds scary, but don’t worry I’ll keep you updated on everything.
🔸When I decide to make a new move, I’ll say it here publicly for everyone to see, so pay close attention.
Alot of people will wish they followed me sooner.
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🎯YOUR MISSION 👇
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