Historical patterns are sounding the alarm for $XRP . Crypto analyst Steph Is Crypto has highlighted a recurring trend involving the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) that has preceded every major XRP crash since 2015. đ
In the world of cycle analysis, the 50-week SMA is the "line in the sand." When price stays below it, the long-term trend turns bearish, and the average flips from support into a heavy ceiling of resistance. đïž
The Ghost of Cycles Past: đ»
History shows that when XRP loses this level, the "floor" tends to drop significantly:
2015: Failed SMA support âĄïž ~75% Drop đ
2018: Failed SMA support âĄïž ~85% Drop đ
2022: Failed SMA support âĄïž ~68% Drop đ
The Current Reality (January 2026): đ
XRP is currently battling at a critical juncture near $1.89. After a brief resurgence earlier this month, the price has struggled to reclaim the 50-week SMA. This weekendâs dip from $2.00 to $1.84 mirrors the "retest and fail" behavior seen in previous cycles. đ
Where Could the Bottom Be? đ
If the historical pattern of 68%â85% declines repeats from recent local highs:
Bear Target 1: $0.59 (A level not seen since late 2024) đ§±
Bear Target 2: $0.27 (The extreme historical support from 2021) đš
The Bottom Line: While past performance isn't a guarantee, the 50-week SMA is a decisive factor. If XRP cannot stage a quick recovery and reclaim this moving average, the "correction" could be much deeper than many expect. â ïž
Are you holding through the volatility, or is the 50-week SMA signal too loud to ignore? đ
