📊 Bitcoin Forecast | Cycle-Based Outlook (Not Financial Advice)
If Bitcoin ($BTC) continues to follow its historical cycle structure, current data points to a potential downside target near $29,000 by October 2026.
Let’s break down the logic 👇
🔁 The 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle
Over the past 8+ years, BTC has formed three major cycle tops:
2017
2021
2025
Each top occurred roughly 4 years apart, followed by a prolonged corrective phase.
⏳ What typically follows a cycle top?
Historically:
📉 Major declines last ~12 months
🔻 Average drawdown: 75%–80%
🕰️ Final bottom usually forms near the end of the correction year
📆 Timing Implication
Latest cycle top: ~October 2025
Projected correction window: until ~October 2026
🎯 Price Projection
Applying a 75%–80% correction to the recent cycle peak gives a projected bottom near $29,000.
This level also aligns with:
🧱 Prior high-volume consolidation zones
📐 Long-term structural support from earlier cycles
🧠 Key Takeaways
This is a cycle-based probability model, not a short-term call
Structure > headlines
Timing > conviction
Cycles > narratives
Markets don’t repeat perfectly — but they often rhyme.
If the cycle holds, patience may be rewarded.
💬 Your view?
Do you believe the 4-year Bitcoin cycle still applies in today’s macro and ETF-driven environment?
