2026: The Year Everything Breaks? 🚨
This is not a drill. Macro data is screaming that the system is fragile, far beyond typical recession fears. We are looking at a convergence of three massive fault lines centered around sovereign bonds, especially US Treasuries. Bond volatility is spiking, signaling serious funding stress.
Fault Line 1: US Treasury refinancing in 2026 collides with surging interest costs and fading foreign demand. Auctions are already showing cracks.
Fault Line 2: Japan, a massive Treasury holder, is seeing USD/JPY pressure forcing them to unwind carry trades by selling bonds, directly spiking US yields when we least need it.
Fault Line 3: Unresolved local debt issues in China are causing capital flight, strengthening the USD and further pressuring US yields.
A single bad 10Y or 30Y auction could be the trigger: Yields spike, liquidity vanishes, and risk assets like $BTC get hammered. Central banks will intervene with liquidity, but this sets the stage for the next inflationary wave. The signal is in the bond market volatility. A disorderly Treasury market is the true systemic risk. Pay attention now.
#MacroAnalysis #TreasuryRisk #SystemShock #CryptoOutlook 🧐
