MARKET CRITICAL: Bitcoin is currently fighting for a trend reversal, trading just below the average cost basis of coins that last moved 6–12 months ago—a level historically marking the line between bear and bull cycles. $BTC
On-chain data from CryptoQuant reveals that this key "UTXO Age Band" currently sits at approximately $100,000. Historically, when Bitcoin price remains below this threshold, the market structure is considered bearish, and the risk of deeper corrections remains elevated. However, a decisive breakout above this $100k mark has traditionally signaled a major structural shift to a bullish trend, often leading to parabolic growth as the secondary market supply dries up. $SOL
This technical struggle coincides with a massive 34x explosion in average Bitcoin deposit sizes to Binance, suggesting that while retail is fearful, institutional whales are aggressively positioning for a potential breakout. Simultaneously, options traders on Deribit are heavily concentrated in $100,000 call options expiring on January 30, with open interest for these calls more than doubling that of $80,000 puts.
As the 2026 Institutional Era unfolds with Bank of America now advising client allocations, the battle for the $100,000 level is being viewed by analysts as the "ultimate litmus test" for the next phase of the market. $ETH
