$BTC still needs to break through the price zones mentioned earlier, as a large pocket of liquidity remains overhead. Until that’s cleared, a sustained trend reversal is unlikely.
We all know Bitcoin’s typical cycle: bear markets usually run close to one year. By that framework, we’re only about a third of the way in.
The difference this cycle is speed. The decline is happening roughly 1.25× faster than normal. Since BTC topped earlier than usual in October, it’s logical to expect the bottom to show up earlier too.
Based on historical drawdowns, price may be just 10–20% from the ultimate low. My view is that we’re around 15% away, with a bottom likely forming in Q2–Q3.
From here, two paths make sense:
• A prolonged accumulation range with sideways action and mild downside
• Or a sharper final sell-off that wraps the bear market up faster
I’m leaning toward an earlier bottom scenario.
I’ve already started buying at current levels and plan to DCA progressively into the next key zones. No rush—forcing entries in these conditions usually does more harm than good
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