The Big Sunday Report: All You Need to Know
🚩 TA / LCA / Psychological Breakdown:
Two weeks ago in the Sunday report at 95k I said the following: “Bitcoin remains stuck in a sideways consolidation, which is still bearish, and it is only a matter of time before we visit targets below 80k. For now, we remain in this sideways phase exactly as predicted in November when I said the sideways phase is going to start, but the next leg down is inevitable.” This is what was said two weeks ago at 95k, and it played out perfectly.
BTC is now below 80k as promised, and with this move Bitcoin did something HIGHLY important this week.
Of course, once again most people are sleeping on it, but Bitcoin just lost the MA100 Weekly, the key indicator that confirms whether we are in a bull or bear market.
Bitcoin was holding strong above the purple line which is the MA100 Weekly, but lost it this week! As seen on the chart, in October 2023 we got the first confirmation of the bull market when BTC broke above the MA100 weekly (purple line).
However, now, two years later and perfectly aligning with the BTC bull cycle, Bitcoin has lost this extremely important level, confirming a move into a bear market. Another great confirmation for Bitcoin bear market theory is the confirmation of the death cross which is currently unfolding right in front of us.
This aligns perfectly with the 2021–2022 cycle top and its aftermath. Yet most people completely ignore it. This has been my personal observation and long-term view, which I already shared months ago at ATH levels between 115–125k, where I repeatedly warned that the bear market had started. Now you understand why.
It is insane to see how Bitcoin broke below this level with such violence. This breakdown is also the confirmed breakout from the bearish flag I mentioned repeatedly over the last 2–6 weeks. I am more than confident that Bitcoin will also close the coming week below the purple line (MA100 Weekly), begin another consolidation phase, and then continue with the next leg down toward my 70k target.
The 70k target is not the bottom, as I already mentioned months ago my bottom theory between 50–60k, which I first shared at 115–125k.
That theory has proven correct, but I now need to make a crucial update to my bottom prediction.
Back in September, at the 115–125k region, I stated that I expected BTC to bottom around 50–60k for this cycle. However, after recalculating and updating my models, I am now spotting even lower prices. My new bottom zone aligns with all my current data and gives a clear and clean outcome: the true bottom is likely between 54–44k, which is insane considering today’s sentiment and price levels.
Another important point:
BTC has now fallen below MicroStrategy’s average entry price, which sits around $76,000. Expect fear and panic to intensify in the coming weeks. I warned Michael Saylor publicly to sell Bitcoin in time and take profits on the phenomenal gains he refused, stating he would never sell BTC.
I seriously question how this is possible in a credit-based system, considering a large portion of MSTR’s BTC was acquired using leverage, while their stock, used as collateral, continues to devalue. With BTC now sitting below their average entry, stabilizing the stock becomes MUCH more difficult. Since MSTR started buying BTC in 2020, their total BTC position is now roughly +/- 0% on a full profit and loss basis. Even the worst ETF would have performed better, and even holding cash in a bank would have generated yield. MSTR never took profits, ever. This means we cannot even argue that their BTC position was funded by realized BTC gains. This will become a major lesson for Saylor, just as he already experienced during the dot-com bubble, where he suffered one of the largest losses of that era. I warned him multiple times, and he ignored every warning. Now expect fear and FUD to escalate further.
Additional panic will also emerge from the release of the Epstein files and rumors linking Epstein to Bitcoin in some way. Personally, I doubt that even if such claims were true they would materially impact Bitcoin, but the masses will run with this narrative regardless, adding more FUD and emotional selling. Overall, I remain extremely bearish and expect continued downside, fully confirming the Bitcoin bear market and validating the theory I shared at 115–125k that the top was already in. With these confirmations, there is no doubt that Bitcoin is in a bear market, and the existing outlook remains fully valid.
To understand why Bitcoin is in a bear market, revisit the October report.
Summary:
BTC lost the MA100 Weekly, EXTREME critical market indicator, another confirmation about the bear market
Bottom expectations revised lower: new projected cycle low sits in the 54k–44k region in my opinion
BTC falling below MSTR’s ~$76k average entry adds risk, fear, and continued downside pressure
Overall outlook remains extremely bearish, fully validating the 115–125k cycle-top call and ongoing downside
Keeping the short from 115-125k fully open, not thinking to take any profits at all.
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE AND EDUCATIONAL CONTENT ONLY
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