Publier
Tammy Lofft SovV
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📊 The Core Problem: A Broken Market
· Unprecedented Price Milestone: Silver surged past $100/oz for the first time in early 2026.
· Critical Divergence: A massive, persistent gap exists. While paper futures (COMEX) traded around $72-$100, physical metal in Asia/Middle East sold for $130-$165/oz.
· Market Failure: In a healthy market, this 45-80% gap would close quickly through arbitrage. Its persistence signals deep structural problems.
⚙️ Three Forces Driving the Stress
1. Physical Squeeze: Exchange vault inventories are very low, lease rates spiked (~8%), and the market is in backwardation—all signs of extreme scarcity.
2. Supply Shock: China, the world's top refiner, imposed export controls in early 2026, locking a majority of global refined supply for its domestic industry (solar panels, EVs).
3. Bank Vulnerability: Major bullion banks, with a history of market manipulation fines, are believed to hold large net short positions. Rising physical prices could trigger massive losses for them.
⚠️ The Systemic Risk Debate
This situation creates risk of a "physicalization" event, where paper contract holders demand metal that isn't available, forcing a violent price repricing.
· The Threat: If systemically important banks face catastrophic losses on silver shorts, it could trigger a financial crisis requiring emergency intervention.
· The Nuance: This is a clear stability risk, but analysts distinguish it from a prophesied total collapse of the banking system. It represents a fundamental loss of confidence in paper claims on silver.
In essence, the silver market is experiencing a potential regime change, moving from financial derivatives toward tangible asset value, with serious implications for global finance. #GoldSilverAtRecordHighs #Silver
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· Unprecedented Price Milestone: Silver surged past $100/oz for the first time in early 2026.
· Critical Divergence: A massive, persistent gap exists. While paper futures (COMEX) traded around $72-$100, physical metal in Asia/Middle East sold for $130-$165/oz.
· Market Failure: In a healthy market, this 45-80% gap would close quickly through arbitrage. Its persistence signals deep structural problems.
⚙️ Three Forces Driving the Stress
1. Physical Squeeze: Exchange vault inventories are very low, lease rates spiked (~8%), and the market is in backwardation—all signs of extreme scarcity.
2. Supply Shock: China, the world's top refiner, imposed export controls in early 2026, locking a majority of global refined supply for its domestic industry (solar panels, EVs).
3. Bank Vulnerability: Major bullion banks, with a history of market manipulation fines, are believed to hold large net short positions. Rising physical prices could trigger massive losses for them.
⚠️ The Systemic Risk Debate
This situation creates risk of a "physicalization" event, where paper contract holders demand metal that isn't available, forcing a violent price repricing.
· The Threat: If systemically important banks face catastrophic losses on silver shorts, it could trigger a financial crisis requiring emergency intervention.
· The Nuance: This is a clear stability risk, but analysts distinguish it from a prophesied total collapse of the banking system. It represents a fundamental loss of confidence in paper claims on silver.
In essence, the silver market is experiencing a potential regime change, moving from financial derivatives toward tangible asset value, with serious implications for global finance. #GoldSilverAtRecordHighs #Silver
📌 Like, Share, Comment and Follow for more content like this.
Avertissement : comprend des opinions de tiers. Il ne s’agit pas d’un conseil financier. Peut inclure du contenu sponsorisé. Consultez les CG.
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