đš THE FED MAY BE FORCED TO MODEL BITCOIN IN BANK STRESS TESTS đŠâż
This isnât about the Fed âendorsingâ Bitcoin â itâs about risk math catching up to reality.
With U.S. banks expanding exposure to Bitcoin via custody, ETFs, derivatives, and prime-brokerage-style services, ignoring BTC in stress tests could soon undermine the credibility of the entire framework.
Pierre Rochardâs argument lands at a key moment:
âą The Fed is gathering public input for its 2026 stress-test scenarios
âą Itâs also pushing for greater transparency in how models are built
If Bitcoin price shocks can materially impact capital or liquidity, the Fed may have no choice but to model them â just like equity crashes or credit spread blowouts.
â ïž This would not be policy approval
â ïž It would be technical recognition
Most likely path:
âĄïž Bitcoin enters stress tests via global market shock scenarios
âĄïž Applied first to banks with major trading, custody, or crypto-linked businesses
What changes then?
âą Standardized crypto risk modeling
âą Tighter governance & controls
âą Higher data + compliance requirements
âą End of âproxy-basedâ crypto risk assumptions
Bottom line:
Bitcoin doesnât need permission to matter.
If itâs big enough to break balance sheets, itâs big enough to be stress-tested.
Thatâs not ideology â thatâs system risk. đ„
