Ray Dalio is raising eyebrows again — and this time, his warning is broader than just markets.
In a series of recent posts, the Bridgewater founder said the global monetary order is “breaking down” as trust between the U.S. and major foreign holders of its debt continues to erode. According to Dalio, central banks are no longer treating fiat currencies — especially U.S. dollar–denominated debt — as the reliable stores of wealth they once were.
He frames this shift inside his long-running “Big Cycle” thesis, which tracks how empires rise, peak, and eventually decline. And in Dalio’s view, the U.S. is now deep into the late stage of that arc.
What’s driving the breakdown?
Growing geopolitical distrust, widening domestic political divides, and the U.S.’s historic levels of debt issuance. He points out that both sides of the dollar relationship — the U.S., which issues the debt, and foreign governments, which traditionally buy it — are increasingly uneasy with one another. That tension, he suggests, becomes dangerous when debt production keeps accelerating.
Dalio also ties today’s turbulence to a broader shift: the simultaneous weakening of the global monetary order, domestic political cohesion, and the geopolitical balance. In his words, “It’s now happening.”
For business leaders, investors, and policymakers, his message is less about panic and more about recognizing a structural transition already underway. Dalio has consistently argued that ignoring historical cycles is what makes countries vulnerable — and that today’s pressures could accelerate changes in the global financial system faster than many expect.
Whether or not one agrees with his conclusions, Dalio’s latest commentary is a reminder that the world isn’t just dealing with market volatility — it’s navigating the early stages of a much larger realignment.