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$SOL #WhaleMovements
{spot}(SOLUSDT)
Potential After $200M Unlock
1. Fundamental Overview
Solana (SOL) is currently at a critical juncture in April 2025, driven by two major catalysts: heavy whale selling and the largest staking unlock since 2021. On April 4, four whale addresses unlocked a total of $200 million in SOL—marking the largest single-day staking unlock through 2028. These tokens were originally staked in April 2021 when SOL traded around $27, representing a 5.5x return on their initial investment.

Two addresses—2UhUo and HUJBz—withdrew 425,270 SOL (nearly $50 million) and distributed them to major exchanges including Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, and Deribit, signaling substantial profit-taking by long-term holders.

Selling pressure intensified with additional whale activity. Whale 4W1Ree recently unstaked 159,028 SOL ($16.5 million) and sold 60,000 SOL for $6.13 million at an average price of $102. Another whale, 5cPair, offloaded 89,734 SOL worth $9.67 million at an average price of $108. Meanwhile, Pump.Fun moved 84,350 SOL ($9.3 million) to Kraken and has sold a total of 1.72 million SOL (~$310 million) since January 2025.

Despite the selling pressure, SOL has managed to hold above the critical $110 level and is currently trading at $114 with a 7.6% daily gain—indicating ongoing market demand.

2. Technical Outlook and Impact on RWA Tokens
Technically, SOL is forming an expanding falling channel, with a recent low of $95.16 on April 7. A swift recovery above $100 shows strong buy-side interest. The RSI is approaching oversold territory, signaling a potential bounce. Some analysts point to a successful retest of a multi-year trendline—previously responsible for a 1,000% rally in Q3 2023.

Key support is at $95, with resistance at $120–$121. If SOL holds support and breaks resistance, the short-term target could be $147. However, failure to maintain $95 may open downside risk toward $69.94.

RWA-related tokens within Solana's ecosystem—known for low transaction fees and high speed—are closely tied to SOL's overall strength. A recovery in SOL could positively impact RWA tokens as well.

3. Alpha Insight: Rally Candidates and Short vs. Long-Term Outlook
Potential Rally Tokens:
Tokens in Solana’s infrastructure, DeFi, and RWA sectors tend to mirror SOL’s price movement with higher volatility. Select meme coins that previously drove high on-chain activity may also rally if sentiment turns bullish.

Short-Term Impact:

Selling pressure from the $200M unlock is expected to persist over the next 1–2 weeks.

SOL is likely to trade within the $105–$135 range, with possible downside to $93.

High volatility remains, with Polymarket participants split—20% expecting a drop to $80 and 21% predicting a rally to $150.

Long-Term Impact:

The average 2025 price forecast stands at $215.52, with a potential high of $238.90.

For 2026–2028, SOL is projected to reach $292–$525 if adoption and network performance remain strong.

4. Conclusion
Solana is at a pivotal point. Despite significant selling from the $200M unlock, its ability to hold above $110 reflects solid underlying strength. Technical indicators suggest potential for a trend reversal, particularly if SOL can break the $120–$121 resistance zone.

In the short term, caution is advised as volatility remains high and selling pressure persists. A gradual accumulation strategy near key support levels may be a prudent approach given Solana’s long-term potential.