tomlee

华尔街著名的“牛市旗手”、Fundstrat 研究主管 Tom Lee 近期在 CNBC 的访谈中抛出了不少重磅观点。如果你还在纠结为什么最近市场这么“肉”，一定要看完他的逻辑。

📉 暴跌元凶：去杠杆与“格陵兰岛”蝴蝶效应

Tom Lee 指出，近期市场的疲软并非基本面出了问题，而是大规模去杠杆。

• 格陵兰岛声明： 谁能想到特朗普的“格陵兰岛”外交表态会波及币圈？这一声明引发了日本国债 (JGB) 收益率的异常波动。

• 连带伤害： 随着全球宏观流动性收紧，高度杠杆化的加密市场首当其冲，引发了踩踏式抛售。

💰 长期预测：BTC 看 20 万，但他更爱以太坊？

尽管短期承压，Tom Lee 依旧是那个坚定的多头：

• BTC 目标： 随着机构采用率持续增长，他坚持比特币 20 万美元 的目标并非遥不可及。

• 反手做多 ETH： 出人意料的是，他表示目前更看好 以太坊 ($ETH )。作为 BitMine 董事长，他的公司已重仓持有超过 400 万枚 ETH（占流通量约 3%）。他认为以太坊在“智能区块链”领域的叙事逻辑正在变得无可替代。

🧬 隐藏风险：量子计算会偷走你的私钥吗？

采访中还提到了一个让老玩家脊背发凉的话题：量子计算对旧钱包的威胁。

• 市场开始担心，随着量子技术的发展，那些早期不活跃的比特币地址（采用旧加密算法）可能会被攻破。这种技术性担忧正在成为一部分资金撤离的潜在心理诱因。

🛡 我们的策略：

1. 拒绝高杠杆： 在 JGB 收益率和宏观政策明朗前，现货依旧是王道。

2. 关注叙事切换： 既然顶级机构大佬开始猛推 ETH，那么“以太坊季节”是否真的要来了？

你怎么看 Tom Lee 的调仓？你认为量子计算是真的威胁，还是机构为了骗筹码制造的恐慌？在评论区留下你的真知灼见！👇


$BTC $ETH
#BTC☀Ethereum #TomLee #内容挖矿 #量子计算

Fundstrat’s head of research, Tom Lee, has told investors to prepare for a rough openingto 2026 before conditions improve later in the year. He warned that political friction and tariff talk could trigger meaningful setbacks for both stocks and Bitcoin, even as blockchain and AI remain long-term strengths.
Tom Lee’s Call And The Near-Term Picture
Lee said a more dovish stance from the US Federal Reserve and the end of quantitative tightening set the stage for gains later on.
He put a possible market correction in the mid-teens range, estimating a pullback of about 15% to 20% at one stage.
He pointed to geopolitics — including renewed tariff threats — and rising political divides as brakes on an immediate, broad rally. Reports note he still expects a late-year rebound if policy eases and liquidity returns.
Reports say the White House’s selective support for certain industries could tilt which sectors lead the recovery.
Deleveraging Still Hitting Crypto Liquidity
Lee argued that recent squeezes have left crypto markets fragile. Market makers have been weakened by repeated forced exits, and that has made price moves jumpier.
He also noted that a fresh Bitcoin all-time high would be an important signal that the market has worked through those stresses, though he didn’t repeat earlier extreme price targets in his latest remarks.
Reports stress the difference between a technical bounce and a move backed by wider adoption and deeper institutional flows.
Heavy Bitcoin Selloff
Despite warnings that a painful decline may still unfold, some investors are not backing away entirely. Reports say parts of the market continue to view sharp pullbacks as buying chances rather than exit signals.
Even with uncertainty around tariffs and global politics, Lee and his camp believes disciplined dip buying — spread out over time — offers better odds than trying to time a perfect bottom while fear dominates headlines.
Reports indicate that more than $1.8 billion was liquidated over a 48-hour stretch as bitcoin lost ground.
Bitcoin sank to roughly $88,500 during the slide, and Coinglass data showed the bulk of wiped positions were longs — a sign that traders had been positioned for higher prices.
The selloff erased gains made earlier in the year and pulled crypto capitalization sharply lower, in one of the biggest drops since mid-November.
#BTC100kNext? #TomLee $BTC