It’s easy to feel the "doom and gloom" when your portfolio is bleeding, but if you look at the macro lens, this 40% drawdown is essentially a rite of passage for Bitcoin.
The recent peak of $126,198 (hit in October 2025) has certainly cooled off, but compared to the "nuclear winters" of the past, this is arguably a standard mid-cycle flush.
📉 Drawdown Comparison: 2025 vs. The "OG" Crashes
Historically, Bitcoin doesn't just "dip"; it craters. A 40% drop actually looks relatively tame when stacked against previous cycle bottoms.
| Cycle Peak Year | Peak Price | Max Drawdown (%) | Duration of Bear Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | ~$31 | -93% | ~5 Months |
| 2013 | ~$1,100 | -84% | ~13 Months |
| 2017 | ~$20,000 | -84% | ~12 Months |
| 2021 | ~$69,000 | -77% | ~12 Months |
| 2025 | $126,198 | -40% (Current) | Ongoing |
🔍 Why This Time Feels Different (But Isn't)
* The "Pro-Crypto" Hangover: Much of the 2025 rally was fueled by political optimism and the "Inauguration Day" pump (where BTC broke $109k). The current 44% decline from the peak reflects a "sell the news" event on a massive scale.
* Institutional Cushion: Unlike 2013 or 2017, we now have spot ETFs (like BlackRock's IBIT) and corporate treasuries holding over 8% of the supply. This institutional "sticky capital" is likely why we haven't seen an immediate 80% candle to the basement.
* Standard Bull Market Pullbacks: Even in the strongest bull runs (like 2017), Bitcoin saw multiple 30-40% drops on its way to the top. Many analysts are arguing that as long as we stay above the $75,000–$80,000 range, the macro-structure remains intact.
⚡ The Verdict
While $ZK and $ARDR might be feeling the altcoin "beta" (dropping harder than BTC), history suggests that if this is a cyclical bottom, we could still see sideways action or further "capitulation" before a 2026 recovery. In the words of the charts: Volatility is the price you pay for performance.
Would you like me to look into the specific support levels for or to see how they're holding up during this flush?
