recovery_boss

By GhostScalpMaster | February 1, 2026 - Morning Analysis
---$BTC
📊 CURRENT SITUATION:
· BTC Price: $78,708.87 (-6.51%)
· RSI(6): 22.21 (vs 1.66 yesterday → IMPROVEMENT)
· MACD: -519.35 (still very negative)
· Distance to EMAs: Still huge (7-9K$ gap)
---
🔄 COMPARISON WITH YESTERDAY: CLEAR PROGRESS
Yesterday (Crash) Today Improvement
RSI(6): 1.66 RSI(6): 22.21 +1,238%
Price: $77,313 Price: $78,708 +1.8%
Sentiment: Panic Sentiment: Controlled fear Stabilization
MACD: -436 MACD: -519 Worse (bearish momentum persists)
Conclusion: The worst of the panic selling is over, but momentum remains bearish.
---
📰 NEWS ANALYSIS: THE GOOD, THE BAD, AND THE UGLY
✅ THE GOOD (Positives):
1. Norway Sovereign Fund: +149% BTC position in 2025 (9,573 BTC)
· Strong signal of LONG TERM institutional adoption
· Sovereign fund = decades horizon, not months
2. Whale Accumulation: 6M USDC deposited to buy BTC low
· Smart money preparing for rebound
· Liquidity ready to support prices
3. UTXO Profit/Loss Ratio: Extreme zones = historical correction end
· On-chain data supports rebound thesis
· LT accumulation opportunity
❌ THE BAD (Negatives):
1. ETF Outflows: -$509M yesterday, -$1.48B this week
· Retail institutional capitulation
· But: Norway counter-balances
2. Miner Crisis: US winter storm → electricity costs ↑, hash rate ↓
· Short-term impact on network security
· Possible miner selling pressure
3. Technical Damage: Price -7% in 24h, below all EMAs
· Time needed for recovery
· Strong technical resistances
⚠️ THE UGLY (Risks):
· Community Sentiment: Panic & fear (5 publications)
· Possible continuation of outflows
· Uncertain Macro context (government shutdown)
---
🎯 UPDATED TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Key Levels:
```
IMMEDIATE SUPPORT: $78,000 (tested yesterday, held)
STRONG SUPPORT: $75,719 (yesterday's low)
EXTREME SUPPORT: $74,975 (last resort)
RESISTANCE 1: $80,436 (EMA7)
RESISTANCE 2: $83,801 (EMA25)
RESISTANCE 3: $84,796 (technical zone)
```
RSI(6) = 22.21: INTERPRETATION
· Yesterday 1.66: Historical buy zone (triggers activated)
· Today 22.21: Still oversold, but less extreme
· Neutral target: 30-35 (next objective)
---
📈 SCENARIOS FOR NEXT 24-48H
Scenario 1: Continuation Recovery (55%)
· RSI continues rising toward 30
· Test EMA7 at $80,436
· Consolidation $78,000-$81,000
· Trigger: ETF outflows stop
Scenario 2: Re-test Support (35%)
· Rejection at $79,000-$80,000
· Re-test $76,000-$77,000
· Double bottom formation
· Trigger: New outflows
Scenario 3: Range Bound (10%)
· $77,000-$79,000 tight range
· Silent accumulation
· Waiting for macro catalyst
---
💼 CURRENT TRADING STRATEGY
For ACCUMULATORS:
```
LEVEL 1: $78,000-$78,500 (NOW)
LEVEL 2: $76,000-$77,000 (if re-test)
LEVEL 3: $74,000-$75,000 (extreme)
STRATEGY: DCA over 3-5 days
HORIZON: 3-6 months minimum
```
For TRADERS:
```
LONG ENTRY: $78,200-$78,500
STOP: $77,800 (-0.9%)
TARGET 1: $79,800 (+1.7%)
TARGET 2: $80,500 (+2.5%)
POSITION: 1-2% capital
```
For CAUTIOUS:
```
WAIT FOR: RSI(6) > 30
CONFIRMATION: Close > EMA7 ($80,436)
ENTRY: $80,500-$81,000 (breakout)
```
---
🏛️ MACRO CONTEXT ANALYSIS:
Government Shutdown (Day 2):
· Impact: Reduced but present
· Traditional markets: Stabilizing
· Bitcoin: Possible decoupling as safe haven
Fed & Rates:
· High rates maintained
· Reduced liquidity persists
· Bitcoin benefits if USD confidence declines
---
📊 MY UPDATED THESIS:
Short Term (1-3 days):
· Rebound toward $80K-81K likely
· RSI recovery in progress
· Volume decisive for continuation
Medium Term (1-3 weeks):
· Range: $76K-85K likely
· Depends on ETF flows (reversal needed)
· Target: Return to $85K-88K if stabilization
Long Term (3-6 months):
· 2026 Halving approaching (6 months)
· Norway adoption = strong LT signal
· $120K target still on table
· Accumulation now = excellent timing
---
🚨 CATALYSTS TO MONITOR:
Potential Positives:
1. ETF flow reversal (net inflows)
2. RSI(6) > 30 confirmation
3. Breakout > $80,436 (EMA7)
4. Norway announces more purchases
Potential Negatives:
1. New ETF outflows > $200M
2. Break of $77,000 support
3. Worsening miner crisis
4. Prolonged shutdown > 5 days
---
🏆 TRACK RECORD REMINDER:
Recent Predictions:
Date Prediction Result Status
30/01 Test $78K possible ✅ Achieved Validated
31/01 RSI extreme → rebound ✅ In progress Partial
31/01 Support $75K strong ✅ Held Validated
Next prediction: Test $80,436 (EMA7) within 48h
---
🤝 COMMUNITY SENTIMENT:
Sentiment Evolution:
· Yesterday: Total panic (RSI 1.66)
· Today: Fear but hope (RSI 22.21)
· Tomorrow: Cautious optimism if >$80K
Your Mindset:
· Still panicking?
· Actively accumulating?
· Waiting for lower?
· Planning exit?
---
🛡️ FINAL RECOMMENDATIONS:
Rule #1: Patience
· Recovery takes time
· No FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out)
· No panic selling
Rule #2: Diversification
· Not all in BTC
· Cash ready for opportunities
· Hedge if necessary
Rule #3: Horizon
· Trading: days/weeks
· Investment: months/years
· Mix according to risk profile
---
🔮 FORECAST:
Based on RSI 22.21 + Data:
· Next test: $80,000-$80,500
· Timing: 24-48 hours
· Volume needed: >$50B/day
· Risk: Rejection at $79,000-$80,000
I'm monitoring:
1. ETF flows 10am NY time
2. RSI progression hour by hour
3. Order book changes $78K-$80K
4. Additional Norway news
---
Tags: I #ETFOutflows #NorwaySovereignFund #MiningCrisis
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· Flow reversal alerts
· Post-crash strategies
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---
📊 "Stairs are built step by step, recoveries candle by candle." - GhostScalpMaster
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