fil

Filecoin算力断崖式下降，进入死亡螺旋！FIL价格只会越来越低，除非出现以下4个转机！

2026年1月23日FIL 43天的数据：Filecoin 全网算力跌破19EiB，减少1363PiB，创历史新低！总节点数跌破1千个；流通每天增加41万，大量算力提前终止扇区解除质押，超1千万FIL流向市场，造成抛压！

其实从2025年10月30日到12月11日的41天里：filecoin 全网算力跌破20EiB，减少1907PiB。

也就是说，在过去的84天里，filecoin 算力减少了3270PiB，实际物理存储空间减少到了2.26EiB。

FIL价格持续低迷，并且会持续不短的时间，因为很多算力还会继续到期过不续期，不少会提示终止扇区取回质押，这里的核心原因是filecoin 价格持续低迷，跌破存储成本（触发挖矿关机价），存储提供商亏本运营，被迫终止算力，然后算力持续下降，生态难起，无使用场景和质押需求，流向市场的筹码越来越多，价格越来越低！形成恶性循环！也叫螺旋死循环！（2020年到2022年价格上涨的最核心因素是冷存储挖矿需要大量的FIL质押需求推动的，而且市场流通的筹码很少，筹码供不应求，而现在恰恰相反，需求场景和筹码完全反过来了）。

有人说，filecoin 在2025年推出的链上存储FOC，以及其他热存储等能否增加使用场景，增加FIL的需求，拯救filecoin 的价格？实际上使用寥寥无几，都是几个协议实验室分化出来的工作小组在用，或者偶尔有几个不知名的项目在用，场外或者大型Web3平台等没见提过！至少目前是这样的。确实，这是拯救FIL的一个突破点（转机），但目前没有起色。

另一个突破点（转机）就是filecoin 基金会（简称FF）做盘或拉盘，或请专业市值管理团队进场。但由于FF受到条条框框的约束，说什么美国法律限制等，都是迂腐不化，自我束缚，每年花几千万美元来瞎搞，没有真正用在刀刃上，钱花了不少（都是filecoin 建设者的血汗钱，因为FF要卖fil换钱，就得砸盘，一砸盘价格就大跌），FIL价格却越来越低。这完全是FF决策方向错误造成！

还有一个转机是超级主力进场做盘拉升。目前有8.18亿FIL流通筹码，需要的操盘资金不少，而且很多都在等卖，比如几次拉升后又快速回落，直接倒V字走势，说明市场抛压极大。
最好的转机是FF配合超级主力一起做盘。（内幕：曾经有操盘团队找过胡安，要求协议实验室锁定筹码，减少流通，然后做盘，被胡安拒绝了。）

最后一个转机是全球存储危机，中心化存储出现大面积毁灭，大家都在用filecoin 进行存储，不然，亚马逊云、阿里云等传统存储成熟又稳定，又有完善的售后等，没有人冒险去用filecoin 进行存储，因为很难用，用不了，不好用，也没有必要用（filecoin 数据如果备份不够，只存在一个机房，是可以删除或故障丢失数据的，并不可靠，其实是伪去中心化存储）。

总之，filecoin算力断崖式下降，大量质押流向市场，FIL流通的浮动筹码越来越多，通胀不断增加，供过于求，价格就会越来越低！至少目前看不到起色！除非以上任何一个出现转机！愿赌服输，落子无悔！

以上是客观事实，仅供参考！#fil $FIL #Filecoin n filecoin #ipfs ipfs fil

Filecoin Hashrate Plunges Off a Cliff, Entering a Death Spiral! FIL Price Will Only Keep Dropping, Unless These 4 Turning Points Emerge!

January 23, 2026 – 43-day FIL data: Filecoin network hashrate fell below 19 EiB, down by 1,363 PiB — a historic low! Total number of nodes dropped below 1,000; daily circulating supply increased by 410,000 FIL, with massive hashrate early terminations and pledge releases, more than 10 million FIL flowing into the market, creating enormous selling pressure!

In fact, from October 30, 2025 to December 11, 2025 (41 days): Filecoin network hashrate fell below 20 EiB, down by 1,907 PiB.

That means, over the past 84 days, Filecoin hashrate has decreased by a total of 3,270 PiB, with actual physical storage capacity dropping to only 2.26 EiB.

FIL price remains persistently depressed and is likely to stay low for quite some time, because a large amount of hashrate will continue to expire without renewal, and many providers are proactively terminating sectors to retrieve their pledges. The core reason is that FIL price has fallen below the storage cost threshold (triggering the mining shutdown price). Storage providers are operating at a loss and are forced to shut down hashrate. This leads to continuous hashrate decline → weak ecosystem → no real usage scenarios or pledge demand → more and more tokens flowing into the market → price keeps dropping! A vicious cycle — also known as a death spiral!

(The key driver of the 2020–2022 price surge was the massive FIL pledge demand from cold storage mining, combined with very low circulating supply — supply could not meet demand. Now the situation is exactly the opposite.)

Some people say: Will the on-chain storage FOC launched by Filecoin in 2025, along with other hot storage solutions, increase real usage scenarios and boost FIL demand, ultimately saving the price? In reality, usage is extremely scarce — mostly just splinter groups spun off from Protocol Labs using it internally, or the occasional unknown project. No major Web3 platforms or off-chain large-scale users are adopting it — at least not yet. Indeed, this is one possible breakthrough point (turning point) for saving FIL, but so far there has been no meaningful progress.

Another potential turning point is if the Filecoin Foundation (FF) starts actively managing or pumping the price, or brings in professional market-making teams. However, FF is constrained by all kinds of rules and regulations (claiming U.S. legal restrictions, etc.), stubbornly tying their own hands. They spend tens of millions of dollars every year on various activities, but never really use the money where it matters most. (All this money comes from selling FIL — which means dumping on the market, and every dump causes the price to crash even harder.) As a result, despite spending so much, FIL price keeps falling. This is entirely due to wrong strategic decisions by FF!

A third possible turning point is if super whales / major players step in to accumulate and pump the price. Currently there are 818 million FIL in circulating supply — manipulating it would require enormous capital. Moreover, many holders are just waiting to sell; every pump is quickly followed by a sharp drop, forming inverted V-shaped patterns, which shows extremely heavy selling pressure. The best-case scenario would be FF cooperating with super whales to jointly manage the market. (Insider info: In the past, market-making teams approached Juan Benet asking Protocol Labs to lock up tokens and reduce circulating supply to facilitate a pump, but Juan refused.)

The final and most powerful turning point would be a global storage crisis — widespread destruction or failure of centralized storage systems, forcing everyone to migrate to Filecoin for storage. Otherwise, mature and stable centralized cloud providers like AWS and Alibaba Cloud offer perfect after-sales service. Almost no one is willing to take the risk of using Filecoin for storage — it’s hard to use, unreliable, and simply unnecessary. (If Filecoin data doesn’t have sufficient backups and is stored in only one data center, it can still be deleted or lost due to failures — it’s actually pseudo-decentralized storage.)

In summary: Filecoin hashrate is collapsing, massive pledged FIL is flooding the market, circulating float keeps increasing, inflation continues, supply far exceeds demand — price will only keep falling! At least for now, no recovery is in sight — unless at least one of the above turning points actually materializes!

This is an objective analysis of the facts — for reference only!

Wish everyone good luck — once you bet, accept the outcome. No regrets after the die is cast!
#fil $FIL l #Filecoin n filecoin #ipfs ipfs fil

#FIL 作为去中心化存储赛道龙头，FIL的长期价值锚定技术落地与真实需求，归零概率极低。2026年减半周期、技术升级、生态爆发形成三重共振，成为FIL从“质押驱动”向“需求驱动”转型的关键之年，其价值重构将围绕基本面稳步推进。

一、核心支撑：四大维度筑牢价值底线

1. 赛道刚需+技术壁垒：数据存储是Web3与AI发展的底层刚需，FIL已完成从“单一存储网络”到“可编程数据基础设施”的升级，FVM生态闭环成型、IPC主网解决扩展性难题，F3协议+PDP技术实现冷热存储全场景覆盖，技术壁垒持续加高。
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2. 通缩模型重塑供需：2026年10月FIL将迎来首次减半，区块奖励从32枚腰斩至16枚，年通胀率从18%降至7%；当前链上日均销毁近万枚FIL，边际通缩效应显现，叠加早期解锁逐步完成，市场抛压将大幅缓解。
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3. 真实需求持续爆发：AI成为核心增量，与AethirCloud等头部算力平台深度合作，承接超43万个GPU容器的存证需求；医疗、工业等企业级场景落地加速，梅奥诊所、特斯拉上海工厂已完成核心数据上链，2025年网络存储容量突破4EB，同比增长85%。
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4. 机构共识持续凝聚：灰度将FIL纳入去中心化AI专项组合，近月增持30万枚，总持仓达150万枚；全球合规框架逐步清晰，为机构资金入场扫清障碍，形成价值底部支撑。

二、关键催化：2026年核心事件落地节奏

- Q1：Filecoin链上云（FOC）正式上线，兼容S3接口降低Web2企业迁移成本；推出全球CDN检索服务，彻底解决“检索慢”行业痛点。
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- 全年：FVM生态持续爆发，DeFi、NFT、跨链数据桥等应用规模化落地，预计生态项目数量增长50%以上。
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- 10月：区块奖励正式减半，与比特币牛市周期形成共振，放大供需错配红利。

三、趋势判断：短期修复，长期看基本面兑现

- 短期（2026年）：若守住1.188美元核心支撑位，将开启震荡修复行情，中性预期2-5美元，关键看FOC落地效果与存储利用率提升。
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- 长期：价值核心取决于“质押驱动”向“需求驱动”转型，若真实数据存储占比持续提升、企业级订单规模化，有望突破估值瓶颈，迈入长期上行通道；反之则可能低位震荡，但无归零风险。

四、风险提示

需警惕技术落地进度不及预期、存储利用率提升缓慢、整体加密市场情绪走弱等风险，切勿追高，理性把控仓位。

结语：FIL的价值逻辑已脱离短期炒作，回归“基础设施价值”本质。2026年是其技术价值向市场价值转化的关键之年，唯有基本面的持续兑现，才能支撑其完成真正的价值重估。

💡 本文仅为行业分析，不构成任何投资建议，加密资产投资存在高风险，请做好DYOR并理性管控风险。

#Filecoin #FIL #去中心化存储 #加密货币分析 #2026加密趋势