Annual Line Long Upper Shadow Sets the Tone! Old Retail Investors Analyze Bitcoin's Two Major Bottom Ranges; the Bear Market is No Longer Just a Short-Term Correction
2025 has passed like this, Bitcoin shines brilliantly in 2025, creating new historical highs, but the vast majority of non-Bitcoin varieties are tragically bleak, with many old retail investors wiped out by the bull market. The market draws candlestick patterns in a state that is both familiar and unfamiliar, telling the story of the industry's maturity and transformation! The annual line of Bitcoin has closed. From the annual line perspective, it has formed a long upper shadow, with a short body and short lower shadow, signifying an end to its strength, and cannot hide its declining trend. The MA7 of the annual line has approached around 57600. Historically, the bottoms of the last two bear markets have both fallen near the MA7 of the annual line, so this position should be marked. If a deep bear market unfolds, this could very well be the bottom range of the major bear market.
【The trend has not reversed, but the market has already started to 'give opportunities'】
Updating the current BTC structure from the perspective of Chen theory:
From the four-hour level, the main idea is still to 'make a rebound'. There are two possible trends, but the strategies are highly consistent: • First: The price fails to make new highs after two rebounds, then moves into a reverse trend; • Second: The price makes a new low first, then moves into a reverse trend.
Regardless of which one, the essence is a rebound structure in a downtrend, so the operation focuses on finding rebound opportunities after a retracement, suitable for phased layouts, not chasing highs, not aggressive.
At the daily level, the overall trend is still running in the downtrend wave indicated by the red segment, and the trend has not completely reversed. However, in the short-term structure, there is a secondary rebound trend, corresponding to the '2 sell' rebound in Chen theory.
The first target for the rebound is around 95,000 USD. If sentiment and volume cooperate, the second target is around 98,000 USD. Overall, the expectation for a rebound still leans towards the 95,000 area, and the specific rhythm and details will be continuously tracked in the posts.
At this stage, patience is more important than direction.
【Every day there are surges, but I am starving every day】
Every day there are cryptocurrencies surging, but it seems like they are never in my hands.
I want to ask: $NOM , $ENSO , do any of you really get to eat these? Is it a preemptive ambush, or did you just happen to stand guard at the right moment? Does it only exist in screenshots?
BTC is moving sideways, the altcoins are wailing. These coins that suddenly surge, are they opportunities, or traps prepared for emotions?
I am too thirsty, too hungry. I want to know how you all catch these surges.
【The market hasn't moved, it's you who is too anxious】
Currently, the market structure remains unchanged, still in a 4-hour level box fluctuation. Both bulls and bears are repeatedly testing, but no effective breakthroughs or volume signals have appeared yet.
The trend still leans towards the previous blue path, with pullbacks not breaking the previous low, indicating a potential strengthening within the fluctuations, but before stabilizing above 90500, restraint is still necessary. If it can effectively stabilize later, the market will have the conditions to extend towards around 94500.
Before the direction becomes clear, it is more suitable to control positions and reduce frequency. During the fluctuation phase, staying alive is more important than judgment.
@CZ Big Brother, my registration time is only 28 days apart from Sister One, but there is indeed a huge gap compared to the first batch of registered users!
Does anyone have friends who registered on Binance in 2017? Come out and show off 😎
Yi He
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Are there any friends who registered on Binance on the same day?
【BTC is still hesitating, smart money has already started moving】
From the current structure, the market is more inclined towards the path indicated by the blue line segment, so it may be considered to first layout a portion of the position.
4-hour level: The trend leans towards the structure of the blue line segment. A pullback at the 4-hour level has not broken the previous low, and it is currently running along the second buy point area. If the subsequent pullback does not refresh the new low, the probability of the market strengthening will significantly increase, and participation in the rebound can be considered in the marked area.
From the perspective of the trend line, BTC has rebounded to near the lower edge of the rising channel, and whether it can successfully stabilize and initiate a continuous rebound is crucial, with 90500 being the key verification point.
Overall, it is still in a 4-hour level box fluctuation, and the direction has not yet been clearly chosen; patiently wait for BTC to give a directional signal. Personally, I lean towards BTC going near 94500.
Live broadcast tomorrow night at 9 o'clock, don't miss it.
$BTC #ETH trend analysis
橙子研究院
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Bullish
【It looks like a drop, but is it actually giving away money? Hidden buying points in a short cycle】
30-minute level: Strategy 1: If the price retraces but does not create a new low, it can be regarded as an effective buying point. First, take a light position to establish a bottom position and aim for a rebound. Strategy 2: If the rebound strength is weaker than expected and the price tests down again and creates a new low, then consider adding positions in batches. Under this structure, the market is likely to produce a relatively large rebound, and the circled area in the chart is a potential buying point.
4-hour level: Trend 1: If a retracement on the 4-hour level does not break the previous low, or if there are two retracements that do not refresh the new low, the probability of the market strengthening significantly increases. You can participate in the rebound in the marked area. From the current structure, the trend is more inclined towards the path shown by the blue segment, so it may be wise to consider laying out part of the position in advance.
【It looks like a drop, but is it actually giving away money? Hidden buying points in a short cycle】
30-minute level: Strategy 1: If the price retraces but does not create a new low, it can be regarded as an effective buying point. First, take a light position to establish a bottom position and aim for a rebound. Strategy 2: If the rebound strength is weaker than expected and the price tests down again and creates a new low, then consider adding positions in batches. Under this structure, the market is likely to produce a relatively large rebound, and the circled area in the chart is a potential buying point.
4-hour level: Trend 1: If a retracement on the 4-hour level does not break the previous low, or if there are two retracements that do not refresh the new low, the probability of the market strengthening significantly increases. You can participate in the rebound in the marked area. From the current structure, the trend is more inclined towards the path shown by the blue segment, so it may be wise to consider laying out part of the position in advance.
【36% funding rate in one day, if the price doesn't move, you go bankrupt first】
RIVER is indeed ruthless and has a real vision. From the bottom of $1.6 all the way up to $50, a solid 30 times increase. You say there are no get-rich-quick schemes in the crypto world? What do you call this? This trend is simply TM invincible, strong to the point of having no friends. Unfortunately, I'm not the one who got rich, I only deserve to be broke 😂.
Looking at this funding rate, it really left me speechless. 1.6% per hour, calculated over 24 hours, even if the price doesn't move, you will lose 36% of your principal in one day, it's simply eye-opening. Who can withstand this kind of rate? If you can hold on for two days, you can basically say goodbye to your principal 😂.
Not to mention those who are shorting, Under this kind of market and this kind of funding rate double torture, they must have already cried themselves to sleep in the bathroom.
【🐶 The Dog is Causing Trouble in the World! BTC Rebound Two Trends: Breakout or Take Off?】
Short-term Strategy Update
BTC has currently rebounded to near the lower edge of the rising channel, whether it can successfully stabilize at this position remains to be seen.
From the perspective of the theory of cycles, there are two possible trends: Trend One, if the 4-hour level retracement does not break the previous low, or if it experiences two retracements without refreshing the new low, the market is likely to strengthen, and one can participate in the rebound at the marked position. Trend Two, the bearish force has not completely dissipated, after a short-term rebound the market is likely to continue to probe for new lows, and one can attempt to position for a rebound after the new low appears.
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For specific operational strategies, please pay attention to our Binance chat room. Overall, we still hold a bearish outlook, and a new low below the 80,000 mark is likely to be touched, the current core issue is only whether to participate in this round of short-term rebound market.
🎺 Thanks to @币安广场 for the official invitation, the Orange Research Institute is honored to participate in this event of "Trading Live Collision". On Sunday at 21:00, we will bring the special session of "Market Analysis", deeply analyzing the 2026 Crypto Investment Practical Manual, everyone is welcome to click to make an appointment, see you in the live broadcast room!
【Dropped below 90,000! The bears strike hard, when will the bottom-fishing signal come?】
The price of Bitcoin fell below the lower support of the rising channel near 90,000 USD, directly leading to a medium bearish candle. In the afternoon, when the market rebounded to the 90,000 USD level, it encountered resistance and fell back, failing to return to the support level, thus confirming an effective break. The short-term parallel support below looks around 85,000 USD, while the key strong support is at 81,000 USD.
From the perspective of the Chan theory, the downtrend in the four-hour level has not yet formed any central structure, so it is not advisable to rush to bottom-fish at this stage. Only when a complete central structure appears on the four-hour chart, accompanied by a confirmed divergence at the bottom, can one consider betting on the opportunity for a rebound from an oversold condition. The current market is still in the phase of extending the downward trend, and it is recommended to remain patient and observe. Looking at the daily level, this round of decline will most likely move towards refreshing the new lows of the stage, and any rebound during this period should be viewed as a rebound within the downtrend, with the overall trend completely aligning with our previous trend prediction.
In terms of operational strategy, spot trading needs to adhere to the principle of patience, focusing on the performance changes of the short-term support level, waiting for clear signals from the key support area at 81,000 USD before deciding whether to enter the market. Currently, our spot positions have all been closed, and we are in a state of no positions, just waiting for the best entry opportunity to arise.
【Buying low and selling high in ETH is as stable as a dog! BTC has fallen below 90,000, life and death hanging by a thread】
I have completely liquidated my positions at the two high points of ETH prices reaching 3,370 USD and 3,308 USD. Last night, I also gradually replenished my ETH spot positions at prices of 3,086 USD and 3,026 USD, while directly placing a hard stop loss order at 2,900 USD.
From the market trend, BTC has already broken below the lower support level of the daily rising channel at 90,000 USD. If the daily close tomorrow morning cannot regain the 90,000 USD level, market risks will further escalate. Therefore, I have placed a hard stop loss in advance to avoid potential risks. Conversely, if it can successfully regain this support level, there is still hope for BTC to challenge the resistance levels of 94,500 USD and even 98,000 USD. Next, we just need to wait for the K-line to give a clear direction.
📢 Important notice! Our community's second live broadcast will start at 9 PM on the 25th! This live broadcast has also received the official invitation and recognition from @币安广场 , special thanks for that! The entire session will be packed with valuable content, and we sincerely invite all friends to tune in on time!
【ETH peaked successfully! BTC breaks through dual support, can the 90,000 mark hold?】
This wave of ETH has been timed perfectly! Entered decisively around 2950 USD, and gradually reduced positions at 3370 USD to secure profits, successfully avoiding the subsequent market crash!
Looking at BTC, after breaking below the 94,500 USD mark, the pressure and support have directly swapped, and this position has changed from a previous support level to a current strong resistance level. Additionally, the price has simultaneously broken below the MA7 moving average and the two support levels at 94,500 USD, so the short-term support will depend on the upward trend line of this rebound, which is around 90,000 USD.
For future trends, refer to the second chart; overall, the support at 90,000 USD is unlikely to hold, and for the specific timing of entry, everyone should keep an eye on our posts and the Binance community updates. Any new operational ideas will be shared at the first opportunity to help everyone profit together!
【The last wave from ETH 2950 to 3370, this wave aims for 3086 again!】
I just synced the ETH 3086 entry operation in the Binance community! Let me share my thoughts: Currently, BTC has already touched the lower edge of this wave's upward channel, and the support around 90000 is quite solid, with a good chance of a rebound after touching it; the short-term pressure is first set at 94500, and once it breaks through, it can continue to test the 98000 mark. Whether it can rebound smoothly, we will let the candlesticks decide.
To be on the safe side, I directly set a hard stop loss for ETH at 2900. The previous wave from 2950 to 3370 has not been digested yet, and this wave will continue to push, hoping to take a big bite again! Brothers, let's charge together!
🙏 Thank you very much for the recognition and invitation from the official account @币安广场 !
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Once again, thank you for the valuable opportunity provided by Binance Square, and we look forward to working with the official team to bring more valuable content to the community in the future! At the same time, I urge all friends who follow the Orange Research Institute to click the reservation link to secure the live broadcast on Sunday, and let's not miss each other in the live room!🚀
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【ETH peaked successfully! BTC breaks through dual support, can the 90,000 mark hold?】
This wave of ETH has been timed perfectly! Entered decisively around 2950 USD, and gradually reduced positions at 3370 USD to secure profits, successfully avoiding the subsequent market crash!
Looking at BTC, after breaking below the 94,500 USD mark, the pressure and support have directly swapped, and this position has changed from a previous support level to a current strong resistance level. Additionally, the price has simultaneously broken below the MA7 moving average and the two support levels at 94,500 USD, so the short-term support will depend on the upward trend line of this rebound, which is around 90,000 USD.
For future trends, refer to the second chart; overall, the support at 90,000 USD is unlikely to hold, and for the specific timing of entry, everyone should keep an eye on our posts and the Binance community updates. Any new operational ideas will be shared at the first opportunity to help everyone profit together!
【Altcoin Bloodbath! ETH Perfectly Topped Out, Rhythm Full】
This wave of altcoin market is simply a bloodbath, with market liquidity drying up to absurd levels, many coins have continuously refreshed their historical lows, and those playing with altcoins are getting hurt more and more, which really echoes that line from the song — "How painful the realization, you are my everything", the situation is truly unbearable to watch!
I had already informed everyone in the Binance community that 80% of my positions were allocated to ETH. Previously, I decisively took profits on 30% of my position near the high point of ETH 3370; yesterday afternoon I cleared all remaining ETH at 3308, perfectly topping out! Next, keep a close eye on the pullback range, specific analysis will be updated later this afternoon, brothers remember to stay sharp!
By the way, I want to mention that I have been firmly bullish on the big coin from 87000 all the way to around 98000, and when the big coin surged to its peak, I simultaneously reduced my ETH position, waiting for the big coin to drop back to around 96000 to clear my position and exit, the rhythm was fully on, is this operation cool enough!
Friends who are keeping up with the rhythm, don't fall behind, and those who haven't caught up should hurry! Lastly, I want to shout out to Binance Square, can such smooth operations get a trending spot? Let more friends who are still struggling in the crypto world see us, using solid skills to lead everyone to take fewer detours, no longer fighting alone, let’s work together, eat meat and drink soup! 💪