⚠️The Federal Reserve's empty city plan in May! Trump sets up a deadlock for interest rate cuts
Trump nominates Waller to take over the Federal Reserve to quickly cut interest rates, but due to the criminal investigation of Powell, he angers Republican Senator Tillis—without ending the investigation, all Federal Reserve personnel appointments will be blocked. Trump is determined to investigate to the end; if the struggle continues until May 15 when Powell's term ends, and Waller is not confirmed, the Federal Reserve will face its first true power vacuum in history, with no legal conclusion on the temporary leader, the plan for interest rate cuts will be completely suspended!
4 possible outcomes (sorted by probability)
1. Trump compromises (40%): Pause the investigation in exchange for Waller's ascension, initiate interest rate cuts in June, risk assets rebound, gold retreats.
2. Internal push for a temporary chairman (35%): Powell/Jefferson serve as interim, interest rate cuts postponed until September, market volatility, dollar remains strong.
3. Stalemate continues until 2027 (20%): Personnel appointments long stalled, policy inaction, stock market under pressure, gold rallies.
4. Powell voluntarily resigns (5%): Legal disputes escalate, market experiences severe fluctuations, a low-probability extreme scenario.
Core market conclusion
Regardless of the outcome, political interference in the Federal Reserve has become a fact, and the central bank's independence is compromised, long-term favorable for gold and commodities; the pace of interest rate cuts is entirely determined by how the deadlock ends, and policy uncertainty remains high!
#美联储 #特朗普鲍威尔互掐 #降息落空 #金融市场 #特朗普称坚定支持加密货币
