The senior analyst has just sounded the highest level alarm!
The Bitcoin 10-week moving average and 50-week moving average have once again shown a 'death cross'—a deadly signal that has triggered crashes four times before, has come again.
Looking back at history, after the signal appeared four times in the past, Bitcoin averaged a drop of 59%!
Now, does this signal at the beginning of 2026 indicate that a storm is brewing? If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could plummet by 50%-60%, approaching the abyss of $38,000-$50,000.
At this moment, every holder must remain highly vigilant.
📉 What is a 'death cross'? A deadly moving average signal
In the technical analysis system of the crypto market, the term “Death Cross” is absolutely one that makes people shiver.
What is it exactly?
In simple terms, it is when the short-term price trend (10-week moving average) crosses below the medium to long-term trend (50-week moving average).
This is not just a simple crossover; it means:
Short-term downward momentum has already overwhelmed long-term support;
Market sentiment has shifted from bullish to bearish, and selling pressure is taking over the market;
This is a clear bearish signal, indicating that the price may further correct deeply.
For the highly volatile Bitcoin, the warning significance of this signal is particularly significant.
📜 A review of the four “massacres”: Will history repeat itself?
The market often says: “History doesn’t repeat itself exactly but tends to be remarkably similar.”
For Bitcoin's “Death Cross,” this statement has been 100% validated in the past. Each time, it has brought about a brutal collapse.
1. September 2014: The beginning of the bubble burst
After the first appearance of the “Death Cross,” influenced by the early market bubble burst and tightening regulations, the price of Bitcoin plummeted by 67%, directly falling into a bear market abyss that lasted for several years.
2. June 2018: Collapse under regulatory pressure
The crypto market entered a period of high regulatory pressure, and together with the signal of the “Death Cross,” Bitcoin fell by 54%, significantly devouring the previous bull market gains, leading countless ICO projects to zero.
3. March 2020: The collateral damage of pandemic panic
With the global outbreak of COVID-19, the liquidity crisis in financial markets spread, compounded by the warning from the “Death Cross,” Bitcoin plummeted by 53% in the short term, hitting a new low at that time.
4. January 2022: A year-long winter
With global crypto regulations tightening, the “Death Cross” triggered market sell-offs again, leading to a 64% drop in Bitcoin and initiating a brutal bear market cycle lasting over a year.
Four occurrences, four crashes, with an average decline of 59%.
Now, this “curse” reappears in 2026; can you still hold onto your luck?
🎯 Target level: The “line of life and death” at $38,000 to $50,000
Since the signal has been issued, where is the target for the decline?
Analyst Ai has provided a clear prediction:
If historical trends are to repeat, combined with the current price level of Bitcoin, this correction could stay within the range of 50% to 60%.
Based on this decline, Bitcoin's price is likely to drop significantly from its current high, probably falling to the range of $38,000 to $50,000.
$38,000: This is an important support level in many past bear markets and the “cost line” for many long-term holders.
$50,000: This level is both a psychological barrier and a densely traded area.
For investors who recently entered at high levels, this decline means significant paper losses; for the market, this may be a necessary path to squeeze out bubbles and return to rationality.
⚖️ Long and short game: What’s different this time?
Despite the “Death Cross” issuing a red alert, the market has not fallen into complete panic. The current situation is in a fierce battle between bulls and bears.
The confidence of bulls:
They believe that, compared to the past four times, the fundamentals of Bitcoin have undergone fundamental changes:
Institutional entry: More and more traditional financial institutions are allocating Bitcoin, and ETF holdings are continuously increasing.
Asset attributes: Bitcoin is gradually being seen as “digital gold,” and the support of long-term funds is becoming increasingly prominent.
They believe these new variables may break the historical curse and render the “Death Cross” ineffective.
The persistence of bears:
They firmly believe in the objectivity of technical signals.
At market trend turning points, technical patterns are often more honest than emotions and fundamentals. The painful lessons from the past four occurrences prove that no matter how justified the reasons may be, the downward trend triggered by the “Death Cross” often has strong continuity and is difficult to reverse in the short term.
💡 Three “life-saving” advice for investors
In the face of potential crash risks, blind panic or blind optimism are both unwise. At this moment, formulating a reasonable response strategy is key to protecting assets.
1. Set strict stop-loss limits, do not hold positions
Please pay close attention to whether Bitcoin falls below key support levels in the near term. At the same time, set reasonable stop-loss points based on your holding cost. Do not attempt to combat the trend with “faith”; preserving your capital should always be the priority.
2. Diversify investments, hedge risks
Do not put all your eggs in one basket with Bitcoin. Appropriately allocate other quality assets (such as ETH, etc.), or allocate part of hedge assets to hedge against the risk of a single asset's crash through diversification.
3. Rational allocation, distinguish cycles
Short-term speculators: It is recommended to temporarily remain on the sidelines, or even consider reducing positions to hedge against risks, waiting for market sentiment to stabilize and the trend to clarify before re-entering.
Long-term believers: If you believe in the future of Bitcoin, then the range of $38,000 to $50,000 may be a rare “golden pit.” At that time, you can gradually allocate your investments based on your financial situation, rather than betting everything at once.
The wind rises from the edge of the blue grass.
The appearance of the “Death Cross” is by no means a baseless rumor. Whether you believe history will repeat itself or not, risk awareness should be reinstated.
In the financial market, surviving long is more important than making quick profits.
Do you think Bitcoin will drop below $50,000 this time?
