One: The bull market is a pile of corpses accumulated from the bear market
Although this sounds cruel, it is indeed an unchanging truth in the cryptocurrency circle. There is an old saying in the crypto world, 'The bull market does not talk about the top, the bear market does not talk about the bottom', and the establishment of a bottom often requires several 'giant corpses' as sacrifices.
Based on the current market signals, although it has already fallen quite badly, according to past experience, to迎来 a real reversal, it may still require the following types of 'sacrifices' to be made.
1. The exchange or whale that is 'big but not倒' (the last round sacrificial offering FTX)
Current situation: Although there are some smaller exchanges, such as the recently collapsed CGC and other fraudulent platforms that are running away, leading exchanges like Binance and OKX remain strong, and even continue to buy back to support the market.
Sacrifice Signal: When a second-tier or even first-tier exchange announces a suspension of withdrawals due to liquidity crises, runs, or regulatory hammer blows, or when a top whale is liquidated to zero, market panic will peak. At this time, retail investors' chips will be completely scared out, and that’s when a golden pit can form.
2: High Market Cap Altcoins (Last Round Sacrifice LUNA)
Currently, everyone thinks Bitcoin has dropped, so they ambush mainstream coins like ETH and SOL, believing they are safe. However, in a true 'great liquidation,' there is no absolute safety.
Sacrifice Moment: When both ETH and SOL experience a sudden drop of 10%-20% for no reason, or when mainstream assets face a death spiral like Luna, panic will reach its peak.
3: Overvalued 'Star Projects' and Venture Capital (Last Round Sacrifice 3AC)
There are still many projects that raised a lot of money in 2024-2025, with token prices still floating high. Many project teams still have ample VC funds and are issuing favorable press releases about 'roadmap achievements coming soon.'
Sacrifice Signal: When those once valued at billions, with funding over a hundred million dollars, 'star projects,' are unable to pay salaries, core teams disband, or token prices drop to the point where they can't even cover server electricity costs, venture capital firms will finally abandon their fantasies. When VCs start cutting losses and leaving, rather than propping up the market, the bottom is nearly reached.
4: The 'last defense line' of leveraged traders
The current drop is more due to selling pressure in the spot market, but the derivatives market's liquidation is not over. Although $2.5 billion was liquidated in 24 hours, many deep contracts (like high leverage on Hyperliquid) have not been cleaned up.
Sacrifice Signal: When Bitcoin suddenly drops again, triggering a liquidation rate of over 90% across all contracts, and even the 'conservative' hedge funds are forced to close positions. Only when the market has 'completely wiped out the bulls' and there are no more buyers will the shorts cover, and the price will stabilize.
5: The last straw of the funding platform
There are still many funding platforms under the banner of 'inscriptions' and 'AI computing power' struggling to survive in the bear market.
Sacrifice Signal: When these last liquidity vampires, like various meme coins and high APY fake DeFi, completely go to zero, and project teams abscond with funds, leaving the last batch of retail investors who hoped to 'gamble foolishly' with nothing. When the last person looking to 'make quick money' loses everything and leaves, the bear market can be considered over.
Two: Current Situation
True panic may not have arrived yet; we are currently in the 'midway rolling stone' stage, and the stone is still falling. No one knows which 'sacrifice' will crush them next.
Three: Recommendations
1: Don't rush to catch the bottom
The current strategy is not to bet on who will be the next hundredfold coin, but to protect the USTD you hold.
2: Observation Signal
Keep an eye on whether ETF capital flows are starting to see a sustained net inflow
Pay attention to whether the fear index has entered the extreme fear zone and continues to fluctuate
3: Wait patiently
When you see those once-thriving project teams begin to lay off employees, shut down services, or even hear about big players in the industry going bankrupt, that's the time to enter and pick up bloodied chips.
