$BTC O Bitcoin starts 2026 in a critical consolidation phase, seeking to break significant psychological resistances. For the next 90 days (February to April), the scenario combines institutional optimism with macroeconomic caution. Here is a summary of what to expect:
1. Price Projections Analysts and algorithmic models suggest a trajectory of gradual recovery after the volatility of January:
February: The consensus average points to values around **US\(114.843** with attempts to break the zone of 100 thousand to US$ 105 thousand.
March: The projected average price rises to approximately US\(116.886**[1.3.4]. Some more optimistic analysts, like Arthur Hayes, foresee that BTC could surpass **US\) 200 thousand if global liquidity is favorable.
April: The historical trend at the beginning of the second quarter tends to be positive, with forecasts ranging between US\(100.480 and US\) 140.454.
2. Macro Factors and Catalysts The performance in the next three months will be strongly influenced by:
Fed Decisions: There is an expectation of gradual cuts in US interest rates starting in March, which tends to favor risk assets like Bitcoin. Shutdown Risk: Investors should monitor the possibility of a US government shutdown at the end of January, which could generate immediate volatility.
Institutional Adoption: Large managers, like Bank of America, are beginning to recommend allocations of up to 4% in crypto for clients, while Vanguard expands access to ETFs for millions of accounts.
