Trump will receive another shutdown?
The market is pricing in an increasingly harsh scenario.
On prediction markets, the probability of a U.S. government shutdown by the end of the month has risen to ~80% — a historical high for this deadline.
Important: this is not a government forecast, but aggregated expectations of market participants. However, such expectations often drive prices.
A shutdown is not a disaster, but a noise factor:
delays in payments, political bargaining, nervousness in risk assets.
So far, we have a classic state of anticipation.
And the market is once again voting not with words, but with probabilities.
BTC
78,040
+1.75%