Bitcoin is approaching a significant macro event as U.S. lawmakers struggle to avoid another federal government shutdown before the funding deadline on January 30. The market enters this period under pressure after a failed January rally and a significant shift in sentiment.
Historically, Bitcoin has not functioned as a reliable hedge during U.S. government shutdowns. Instead, price movements have tended to follow the existing momentum in the market.
Why a U.S. shutdown is on the table again
The renewed risk of shutdown stems from Congress's failure to finalize several appropriations bills for FY2026. Temporary funding expires on January 30, and negotiations have stalled, particularly around funding for the Department of Homeland Security.
Unless lawmakers pass either a new temporary appropriation or full-year funding by the deadline, parts of the federal government will begin shutting down immediately. Markets are now treating January 30 as a binary macro event.
Bitcoin's price development through January 2026 has already reflected increasing fragility. After briefly approaching the range of $95,000–$98,000 mid-month, BTC could not hold those levels and sharply reversed.
Bitcoin's historical performance during U.S. government shutdowns provides little support for a bullish narrative.
In the latest four shutdowns over the last decade, Bitcoin fell or extended existing downward trends in three cases.
Only one shutdown, a brief funding halt in February 2018, coincided with a rally. This movement occurred during a technically oversold rebound, not as a response to the shutdown itself.
The pattern is broadly consistent. Shutdowns tend to act as catalysts for volatility, not as directional factors. Bitcoin usually reinforces the existing trend instead of reversing it.
Miner data shows pressure, not strength
New on-chain data provides additional reason for caution. According to CryptoQuant, several large U.S. mining companies have significantly cut production in recent days, as winter storms have forced the power grid into shutdowns.
Daily Bitcoin production fell significantly at companies like CleanSpark, Riot Platforms, Marathon Digital, and IREN. While reduced production may temporarily limit supply on the seller's side, it also signals operational stress in the mining sector.
Experientially, miners' supply constraints have not been enough to offset broader macro-driven selling unless demand is strong. Currently, demand signals remain weak.
Realized losses are increasing
Net Realized Profit and Loss (NRPL) data also supports a defensive view. Recent weeks have seen an increase in realized losses, with fewer large profit-taking events than earlier in 2025.
It suggests that investors are exiting positions at unfavorable prices rather than confidently reallocating capital. Such behavior often aligns with late-phase distributions and de-risking phases – not accumulation.
In this context, negative macro headlines tend to amplify negative volatility rather than trigger sustained increases.
This is how Bitcoin may react on January 30
If the U.S. government shuts down on January 30, Bitcoin will likely react as a risky asset rather than a hedge.
The most likely outcome is a short-lived volatility spike with a downward tendency. A dip down to January's bottom levels would align with the historical reaction during shutdowns and the current market structure. A rebound is likely to be only technical and short-lived, unless overall liquidity improves.
A significant rise driven solely by shutdown news does not seem likely. Bitcoin has rarely risen during shutdowns without simultaneously positive flow and changed sentiment, which is lacking now.
Bitcoin does not enter the shutdown risk from a position of strength. ETF outflows, rising realized losses, mining pressure, and rejected resistance all indicate a cautious setup.
As we approach January 30, the risk of shutdown will likely act as a stress test for the already fragile market expectation.
For now, history and data suggest that Bitcoin's reaction will reflect the existing momentum – not break from it.
