📌 Analysis performed through structured prompt ChatGPT:
event → share of market cap → liquidity → behavior of large players → risk zone
1) What does this mean for the market
Unlock = increase in circulating supply.
The market usually reacts not to the 'amount', but to the share of market cap + token liquidity + who receives the unlock (team/funds/incentives) and whether it can be quickly sold in the order book.
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2) Real effect (by strength)
Overall effect: moderate.
But within the week there are 2 “dirty” risks where the unlock can really break the price locally.
Why moderate overall: for most events, the share of the market cap is not critical (1–6%), except for two.
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3) Top-7 unlocks (numbers → meaning)
🟥 High risk (can lead to sharp volatility / sell-off)
TREE (29 Jan)
• Tokens: 90.66M (9.07%)
• Unlock amount: $9.78M
• % of Market Cap: 58.1%
• Conclusion: this is an abnormally large share of the market cap. If liquidity is weak — any exit to the market = a hit to the price.
SIGN (28 Jan)
• Tokens: 189.17M (1.89%)
• Unlock amount: $7.81M
• % of Market Cap: 11.5%
• Conclusion: the share is high. Often on such days the market makes a pump → sell-off or simply “unwinds” down on the spot.
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🟧 Medium risk (pressure/volatility is likely, but not guaranteed)
#EIGEN (1 Feb)
• Tokens: 36.82M (2.06%) | Unlock: $12.35M | 6.75% MC
• Conclusion: significant. If there is growth before the unlock — the risk of fixation at the unlock.
#KITE (1 Feb)
• Tokens: 100.00M (1.00%) | Unlock: $11.54M | 5.56% MC
• Conclusion: average pressure. The market can preemptively “unload” the price.
UDS (30 Jan)
• Tokens: 4.68M | Unlock: $11.31M | 3.76% MC
• Conclusion: moderate. The reaction depends more on liquidity/volumes.
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🟨 Low risk (more likely noise than an event)
#OP (31 Jan)
• Tokens: 32.21M (0.75%) | Unlock: $9.81M | 1.66% MC
• Conclusion: the share is small. A strong effect only if the market is already weak.
$SUI (1 Feb)
• Tokens: 54.00M (0.54%) | Unlock: $80.38M | 1.42% MC
• Conclusion: the sum is large, but the share to the market cap is small. Often the effect is moderate/null if there is no panic and there is liquidity.
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4) News risks (what could go wrong)
• Liquidity collection before the date: they raise the price to distribute it at a higher price → then a sell-off during the unlock.
• Failure on a thin order book: especially in tokens with a small cap/volume (the main candidate here is TREE).
• False stability: “nothing is happening” until the unlock moment, and movement comes with one candle.
• Behavior of large players: funds/early holders often sell at the moment of unlocking, not “by the technique.”
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5) What has changed in the market structure
The market structure as a whole is not important, but the local structure of specific tokens is:
On unlock dates, the likelihood of forced supply increases → this is an asymmetric risk downwards (especially if the asset has risen before the event).
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6) Summary of the event
Unlocks this week generally exert moderate pressure, but for TREE and SIGN the risk of a local sell-off and volatility is really high due to a large share of the market cap. 👉 Training:⚡ Strategies— how the market moves and where to enter—@INVESTIDEAUA
