Bitcoin falls below $86K as $2.78B in whale BTC sales overwhelm active dip buyers
Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $86,000 on Monday, continuing to widen a liquidity imbalance as smaller participants continued to buy dips. However, large holders are using the demand to exit positions, firmly maintaining downward pressure in place.
Key takeaways:
Retail and mid-sized Bitcoin wallets bought $474 million in accumulated purchase volume, while whales sold $2.78 billion during the same period.
Short-term BTC holders continued to sell at a loss, a sign of capitulation, but a reversal has not been confirmed.
Bitcoin may re-test quarterly lows at $80,600 after invalidating its short-term uptrend.
Whales dominate the sell side while retail bets on a bottom
Order flow data from Hyblock Capital highlighted a sharp divergence in behavior among participant classes. Retail traders or wallets ($0–$10,000) accumulated a cumulative volume delta of $169 million, consistently offering during the downtrend. Mid-sized participants ($1,000–$100,000) also built a net position of $305 million in spot while attempting to anticipate a recovery.
Price and volume delta of BTC (cumulative) among different wallet sizes. Source: Hyblock
However, whale wallets ($100,000–$10 million) continue to be the dominant force, with a negative cumulative volume delta of $2.78 billion. The combined buying power of retail and mid-sized traders is insufficient to absorb the distribution on an institutional scale.
This results in a liquidity mismatch where small players interpret prices below $100,000 as a discount, while large holders treat the same zone as an opportunity to reduce exposure.
Meanwhile, on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr pointed out that the spent output profit ratio of short-term holders (7-day SMA) fell below 1, currently hovering around 0.99. This indicated that coins held for less than 155 days are, on average, being sold at a loss.
Historically, such conditions have aligned with local capitulation phases, when selling pressure peaks. However, Adler emphasized that stress alone is not a reversal signal. A sustained recovery may begin after the SOPR recovers and holds above 1, confirming that demand has begun to absorb the supply.
SOPR of short-term Bitcoin holders. Source: Axel Adler Jr.
Related: Bitcoin sees 'pure manipulation' as sales in the US liquidate $200M in one hour
Bitcoin open to revisiting lower liquidity targets
From a technical standpoint, the structure of Bitcoin has further weakened. The price of BTC broke a rising wedge pattern, sweeping the monthly VWAP (volume-weighted average price) before printing a bearish structural break (BOS) below $87,600.
Analysis of the Bitcoin chart over four hours. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
With the short-term uptrend invalidated, BTC now faces bearish targets near previous liquidity pools or external liquidity.
Immediate targets remain at the low of $83,800, with a deeper retracement towards the quarterly lows of $80,600 possible if selling pressure persists. For now, both order flow and on-chain signals suggest that patience is needed before declaring a durable bottom.
